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Fed to reveal new projections with investors on alert for rate liftoff timing

Source: Reuters

Sept 20 (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve officials will lay bare how soon and how often they think the economy will need interest rates rises over the next three years when they release new forecasts at their policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors on alert for a faster pace of tightening.

The so-called “dot plot,” released quarterly, charts policymakers projections, on an anonymous basis, for economic growth, employment and inflation, as well as the timing of interest rate rises.

It will show whether most are sticking to recently expressed views that the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which has dented economic activity, will have a short-lived effect on the recovery despite the current turbulence and uncertainty it is causing. This week’s set of dots also will include policymakers’ forecasts for 2024 for the first time.

Interest rates have been near zero since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic with the Fed vowing not to raise borrowing costs until the economy has fully healed. According to the Fed’s new framework, that means a greater emphasis on achieving maximum employment along with its 2% average inflation goal.

Hotter-than expected inflation despite some recent moderation is testing policymakers’ commitment to that new framework and could cause the median of the Fed’s forecasts for a liftoff in interest rates to switch to 2022 from 2023 at the June meeting.

For that to happen, only three policymakers would need to bring forward their projections, and a shift of just two would result in a dead-heat split inside the Fed over whether liftoff is in the cards for next year or later.

“We all know the dots are not promises or commitments, but it’s still the best that the market has to go by to what policy will be in the future,” said Roberto Perli, an economist at Cornerstone Macro and former Fed staffer. “The risks are skewed to the upside.”

In June, Fed officials' projections reflected an earlier lift off for rates. What will happen this week?
In June, Fed officials’ projections reflected an earlier lift off for rates. What will happen this week?

There are rising expectations the central bank will at least use its upcoming meeting on Sept. 21-22 to signal it plans to start reducing its massive bond purchases, also put in place in early 2020 to support the economy’s recovery, in November if incoming data holds up, amid the fastest economic recovery in history from a brief recession last year. read more

Fed officials argue the asset purchase program has run its usefulness given that demand, which it most directly affects, has rebounded even if the supply of both labor and goods has been constrained.

The scaling back could be completed as early as mid-2022, clearing the way for the Fed to lift interest rates from near zero any time after that.

The consensus among economists polled by Reuters is for rates to remain near zero until 2023 but more than one-quarter of respondents in the September survey forecast the Fed raising rates next year. read more

If the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 median interest rate projections stay the same, attention will focus on 2024 as investors parse the pace of rate rises once liftoff begins. It will also show how many policymakers, if any, still see interest rates on hold until at least 2024. In June, five out of the 18 policymakers saw rates staying pat until the end of 2023.

Currently, futures on the federal funds rate, which track short-term interest rate expectations, are pricing in one rate hike in 2023 and one or two additional increases in 2024, but the latest Primary Dealer survey, which the Fed consults to get a read on market expectations before each meeting, shows three additional rate hikes.

If the Fed pencils in three or more hikes at this week’s meeting for 2024, “that would deliver a hawkish sign that could more than offset any dovish messaging on tapering,” said Michael Pierce, an economist at Capital Economics.

MIXED BAG ON FORECASTS

The extent to which policymakers alter their other economic forecasts could also provide valuable insight. Few expect the Fed to change its expectation of the level to which interest rates could rise, currently seen as 2.5%, but their forecasts on U.S. economic growth this year and inflation projections this year and next could see revisions.

Economists have been downgrading their gross domestic product estimates for the current quarter, citing weak motor vehicle sales as inventory shortages persist, and a recent surge of COVID-19 infections fueled by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, although data released last Thursday showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August. read more

Inflation estimates could prove more thorny. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, still awaiting word on whether he will be renominated to his post for a second term by U.S. President Joe Biden, has steadfastly kept to the view higher-than-expected inflation is transitory, although he and others have admitted it may linger longer than this year amid persistent supply constraints.

Last week, Labor Department data showed underlying consumer prices increased at their slowest pace in six months in August, suggesting that inflation had probably peaked. read more

Some other Fed officials are more alarmed and several have cited the possibility that higher inflation persists and causes a rise in inflation expectations as reason to taper asset purchases quickly to allow time for faster rate rises if required.

If the median projections show, for example, an additional rate hike in 2023 than currently forecast and indicate an earlier date for liftoff, Powell’s likely reiteration at his press conference following the meeting that tapering is not connected to rate hike decisions, could fall flat.

“The Board has drifted in the hawkish direction,” said Tim Duy, an economist at SGH Macro Advisors and an economics professor at University of Oregon, who expects the dots will show most policymakers now believe raising rates in 2022 will be appropriate, given rising concern about inflationary pressures. “The doves are now limited.”

Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Could electric vehicles be the answer to energy flexibility?

Rolf Bienert, Managing and Technical Director, OpenADR Alliance

Last year, what was the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and Ofgem published its Electric Vehicle Smart Charging Action plans to unlock the power of electric vehicle (EV) charging. Owners would have the opportunity to charge their vehicles while powering their homes with excess electricity stored in their car.

Known as vehicle to grid (V2G) or vehicle to everything (V2X), it is the communication between a vehicle and another entity. This could be the transfer of electricity stored in an EV to the home, the grid, or to other destinations. V2X requires bi-directional energy flow from the charger to the vehicle and bi- or unidirectional flow from the charger to the destination, depending on how it is being used.

While there are V2X pilots already out there, it’s considered an emerging technology. The Government is backing it with its V2X Innovation Programme with the aim of addressing barriers to enabling energy flexibility from EV charging. Phase 1 will support development of V2X bi-directional charging prototype hardware, software or business models, while phase 2 will support small scale V2X demonstrations.

The programme is part of the Flexibility Innovation Programme which looks to enable large-scale widespread electricity system flexibility through smart, flexible, secure, and accessible technologies – and will fund innovation across a range of key smart energy applications.

As part of the initiative, the Government will also fund Demand Side Response (DSR) projects activated through both the Innovation Programme and its Interoperable Demand Side Response Programme (IDSR) designed to support innovation and design of IDSR systems. DSR and energy flexibility is becoming increasingly important as demand for energy grows.

The EV potential

EVs offer a potential energy resource, especially at peak times when the electricity grid is under pressure. Designed to power cars weighing two tonnes or more, EV batteries are large, especially when compared to other potential energy resources.

While a typical solar system for the home is around 10kWh, electric car batteries range from 30kWh or more. A Jaguar i-Pace is 85kWh while the Tesla model S has a 100kWh battery, which offers a much larger resource. This means that a fully powered EV could support an average home for several days.

But to make this a reality the technology needs to be in place first to ensure there is a stable, reliable and secure supply of power. Most EV charging systems are already connected via apps and control platforms with pre-set systems, so easy to access and easy to use. But, owners will need to factor in possible additional hardware costs, including invertors for charging and discharging the power.

The vehicle owner must also have control over what they want to do. For example, how much of the charge from the car battery they want to make available to the grid and how much they want to leave in the vehicle.

The concept of bi-directional charging means that vehicles need to be designed with bi-directional power flow in mind and Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment will have to be upgraded as Electric Vehicle Power Exchange Equipment (EVPE).

Critical success factors

Open standards will be also critical to the success of this opportunity, and to ensure the charging infrastructure for V2X and V2G use cases is fit for purpose.

There are also lifecycle implications for the battery that need to be addressed as bi-directional charging can lead to degradation and shortening of battery life. Typically EVs are sold with an eight-year battery life, but this depends on the model, so drivers might be reluctant to add extra wear and tear, or pay for new batteries before time.

There is also the question of power quality. With more and more high-powered invertors pushing power into the grid, it could lead to questions about power quality that is not up to standard, and that may require periodic grid code adjustments.

But before this becomes reality, it has to be something that EV owners want. The industry is looking to educate users about the benefits and opportunities of V2X, but is it enough? We need a unified message, from automotive companies and OEMs, to government, and a concerted effort to promote new smart energy initiatives.

While plans are not yet agreed with regards to a ban on the sale on new petrol and diesel vehicles, figures from the IEA show that by 2035, one in four vehicles on the road will be electric. So, it’s time to raise awareness the opportunities of these programs.

With trials already happening in the UK, US, and other markets, I’m optimistic that it could become a disruptor market for this technology.

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Adapt or fall behind: why embracing data-centric technology is key for investment firms

Source: Finance Derivative

By Murray Campbell, Product Manager at AutoRek

The investment sector has often relied on conventional procedures and stringent regulations. However, coping with obsolete legacy software can impede an organisation’s growth and development. Despite being aware of these challenges, investment companies worldwide tend to persist with these systems due to the perceived high cost and complexity in implementing modern technology. 

As technology continues to advance and the world becomes more digitally dependent, there is increasing pressure on firms to ensure their buy-side operating model is as efficient as possible. While investment firms have typically prioritised the front-end of their product, the back-office is equally important as this is the engine that drives any organisation. This is particularly key in today’s rapidly evolving markets where significant rewards await businesses that can successfully deliver innovation and efficiency within their organisation.

The unforeseen costs of manual processes

When investment firms operate independently, they often end up utilising various platforms that offer similar functions. However, this approach results in the accumulation of expensive and disjointed systems, leading to inefficient workflows, high costs, and the need to maintain multiple vendor relationships. Such inefficiencies can hinder a firm’s ability to adapt to new market challenges and demands, which can be a major problem for companies in the long-term.

For many, the lack of suitable IT systems is the most common operational challenge UK investment businesses face. Many face obstacles when it comes to reliance on manual processes, an absence of suitable solutions available in the market, or a lack of resources available to invest in such solutions. In the dynamic realm of data management, the choice of tools and solutions is crucial for steering business decision-making and operational efficiency. Investors need faster, more personalised customer experiences and investment firms need to focus on providing seamless journeys – even in the face of economic turbulence and increasing regulatory requirements.

One area where organisations can greatly benefit from advanced technology is by reducing their dependency on spreadsheets. Currently, many buy-side investment managers are still reconciling data in spreadsheets or using generic platforms that lack key features. In fact, more than nine in 10 agree that their firm relies too heavily on manual tasks and spreadsheets, meaning that the UK investment management industry still has some distance to go to remove reliance on manual reconciliations. Relying on outdated methods can be a costly mistake.

The expansion of the digital economy, increasing transactional volumes, and ever-changing regulatory obligations have made it necessary to adopt more sophisticated solutions. Excel, for instance, lacks key controls and has limited auditability, making it almost impossible to track and evidence actions. As a result, organisations end up spending more resources and money to fix errors, leading to higher costs in the long run. Therefore, transitioning to more advanced solutions is crucial to ensure data accuracy, integrity, and scalability as they continue to grow and evolve.

How is automation changing the investment industry?

In the current digital age, management of complex operations is heavily reliant on automation. With the help of data-driven insights, automation can enable investment managers to make informed decisions, identify market trends, and optimise portfolio performance. By automating tasks such as validations and cash transfers, investment managers can ensure that data-related tasks are executed with speed and accuracy, freeing up their time to focus on activities where their human expertise and creativity can add more value.

According to a recent report by AutoRek, UK-based investment managers claim they are continuing to invest in automation, with 100% of respondents either maintaining or increasing their automation expenditure in the years ahead. Continued investment in automation is promising given firms remain too reliant on manual processes, particularly when it comes to reconciliations. Nevertheless, successful implementation isn’t about adopting every automation tool available. Instead, companies should focus on strategically selecting applications and carefully refining processes that are in line with their corporate objectives and unique requirements.

Act now or fall behind

The promise of emerging technologies lies in the ability to unlock new insights and improve productivity. But to use this technology effectively, modern infrastructure that can capture and validate large volumes of data in a scalable manner is required. Replacing manual processes with end-to-end automation can drive significant benefits for investment firms as it presents an opportunity to eliminate much of the friction around reconciliations, reduce operating costs, and liberate staff from repetitive manual tasks.

To conclude, the integration of data-centric technology is crucial. If investment firms want to remain competitive and innovative they must keep up with the demands of fast-moving markets. They must clear their data clutter and evolve quickly – or risk being left behind.

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Why email marketing remains one of the best forms of digital marketing

Crafting a strong email marketing strategy involves a real balance between creativity and making data-driven decisions, which, is just one of the roles undertaken by marketing and data company Go Live Data on behalf of its many clients.

Guiding some of the biggest corporates in the UK including Amazon Business, AxA and Premierline Business Insurance, Adam Herbert, CEO of Go Live Data, advises on the key components to a successful email campaign and why as one of the most effective marketing tools available, email still plays a crucial role in digital marketing:

Forming a direct means of communication, emails provides a and two-way access between businesses and their customers. And it may sound obvious to say, but unlike social media or other digital channels, every email allows marketers to reach their audience straight into their inbox, and this is where individuals are most likely to engage with the content they’re being shown.

Offering a high return on investment,  emails consistently deliver one of the highest ROI’s compared to other forms of digital marketing such as PPC and advertising. According to studies, the average is around £40 for every £1 spent, which is huge; and due to the low cost of email, its ability to drive conversions and to retain customers.

What’s more, with email segmentation and many personalisation techniques available, marketers can tailor their messages to specific groups of their audience, based on demographics, their behaviours, interests, and purchase history making them not only very targeted, but personalised too. The key is to deliver relevant content to subscribers, which means marketers can increase engagement, conversions, as well as customer satisfaction.

There are specific platforms which allow for automation, giving marketers the ability to set up automated workflows triggered by user actions and also means that marketers can deliver timely and relevant messages at scale, by nurturing leads, as an effective way to guide customers efficiently through the sales funnel.

Emails are also an excellent way to build customer relationships, by nurturing over time. By consistently delivering valuable content, exclusive offers, and personalised recommendations, businesses can strengthen the ‘bond’ with their audiences and increase brand loyalty. Email provides a means of two-way communication, which allows customers to send in their feedback, to ask any questions they may have and to  engage with a brand directly.

They are also a great way to drive traffic to your website, blog and social media, or any other digital channels connected to your business. By including attractive or compelling calls-to-action (CTAs) and relevant content, you can encourage subscribers to take action such as making a purchase, signing up for a webinar, or downloading a resource, which in turn will drive conversions and revenue for your business.

Email platforms offer substantial analytics and reporting functions that enable marketers to track the performance of their campaigns in real-time. Monitoring of key metrics such as open rates, click-through rates, conversion rates, and revenue generated, allows marketers to measure the effectiveness of their campaigns and of course make data-driven decisions to optimise and plan future activities.

Overall, emails are an integral component of a digital marketing and by leveraging email effectively, businesses can engage their audience, nurture leads, drive sales, and ultimately grow their businesses.

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