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Fed to reveal new projections with investors on alert for rate liftoff timing

Source: Reuters

Sept 20 (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve officials will lay bare how soon and how often they think the economy will need interest rates rises over the next three years when they release new forecasts at their policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors on alert for a faster pace of tightening.

The so-called “dot plot,” released quarterly, charts policymakers projections, on an anonymous basis, for economic growth, employment and inflation, as well as the timing of interest rate rises.

It will show whether most are sticking to recently expressed views that the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which has dented economic activity, will have a short-lived effect on the recovery despite the current turbulence and uncertainty it is causing. This week’s set of dots also will include policymakers’ forecasts for 2024 for the first time.

Interest rates have been near zero since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic with the Fed vowing not to raise borrowing costs until the economy has fully healed. According to the Fed’s new framework, that means a greater emphasis on achieving maximum employment along with its 2% average inflation goal.

Hotter-than expected inflation despite some recent moderation is testing policymakers’ commitment to that new framework and could cause the median of the Fed’s forecasts for a liftoff in interest rates to switch to 2022 from 2023 at the June meeting.

For that to happen, only three policymakers would need to bring forward their projections, and a shift of just two would result in a dead-heat split inside the Fed over whether liftoff is in the cards for next year or later.

“We all know the dots are not promises or commitments, but it’s still the best that the market has to go by to what policy will be in the future,” said Roberto Perli, an economist at Cornerstone Macro and former Fed staffer. “The risks are skewed to the upside.”

In June, Fed officials' projections reflected an earlier lift off for rates. What will happen this week?
In June, Fed officials’ projections reflected an earlier lift off for rates. What will happen this week?

There are rising expectations the central bank will at least use its upcoming meeting on Sept. 21-22 to signal it plans to start reducing its massive bond purchases, also put in place in early 2020 to support the economy’s recovery, in November if incoming data holds up, amid the fastest economic recovery in history from a brief recession last year. read more

Fed officials argue the asset purchase program has run its usefulness given that demand, which it most directly affects, has rebounded even if the supply of both labor and goods has been constrained.

The scaling back could be completed as early as mid-2022, clearing the way for the Fed to lift interest rates from near zero any time after that.

The consensus among economists polled by Reuters is for rates to remain near zero until 2023 but more than one-quarter of respondents in the September survey forecast the Fed raising rates next year. read more

If the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 median interest rate projections stay the same, attention will focus on 2024 as investors parse the pace of rate rises once liftoff begins. It will also show how many policymakers, if any, still see interest rates on hold until at least 2024. In June, five out of the 18 policymakers saw rates staying pat until the end of 2023.

Currently, futures on the federal funds rate, which track short-term interest rate expectations, are pricing in one rate hike in 2023 and one or two additional increases in 2024, but the latest Primary Dealer survey, which the Fed consults to get a read on market expectations before each meeting, shows three additional rate hikes.

If the Fed pencils in three or more hikes at this week’s meeting for 2024, “that would deliver a hawkish sign that could more than offset any dovish messaging on tapering,” said Michael Pierce, an economist at Capital Economics.

MIXED BAG ON FORECASTS

The extent to which policymakers alter their other economic forecasts could also provide valuable insight. Few expect the Fed to change its expectation of the level to which interest rates could rise, currently seen as 2.5%, but their forecasts on U.S. economic growth this year and inflation projections this year and next could see revisions.

Economists have been downgrading their gross domestic product estimates for the current quarter, citing weak motor vehicle sales as inventory shortages persist, and a recent surge of COVID-19 infections fueled by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, although data released last Thursday showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August. read more

Inflation estimates could prove more thorny. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, still awaiting word on whether he will be renominated to his post for a second term by U.S. President Joe Biden, has steadfastly kept to the view higher-than-expected inflation is transitory, although he and others have admitted it may linger longer than this year amid persistent supply constraints.

Last week, Labor Department data showed underlying consumer prices increased at their slowest pace in six months in August, suggesting that inflation had probably peaked. read more

Some other Fed officials are more alarmed and several have cited the possibility that higher inflation persists and causes a rise in inflation expectations as reason to taper asset purchases quickly to allow time for faster rate rises if required.

If the median projections show, for example, an additional rate hike in 2023 than currently forecast and indicate an earlier date for liftoff, Powell’s likely reiteration at his press conference following the meeting that tapering is not connected to rate hike decisions, could fall flat.

“The Board has drifted in the hawkish direction,” said Tim Duy, an economist at SGH Macro Advisors and an economics professor at University of Oregon, who expects the dots will show most policymakers now believe raising rates in 2022 will be appropriate, given rising concern about inflationary pressures. “The doves are now limited.”

Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Business

Total Experience in Insurance

Source: Finance Derivative
Author: Monica Hovsepian, Global Industry Strategist for Financial Services, OpenText

While the insurance industry might be undergoing major changes driven by technology, the end goal remains much the same. Improving the customer and employee experience has been the priority for the industry ever since the digital transformation got underway.

Obviously, financial metrics are the true bottom line, as ever in business. But, as ITT President Harold Geneen put it so sagely, ‘in the business world, everyone is paid in two coins: cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later.’

Geneen was speaking in a different age, when the word ‘experience’ was used in a slightly different way. But his insight is just as important today. Getting digital experiences right – for both customers and employees – is critical to the overall business success of companies within the insurance industry.

McKinsey has highlighted this, reporting that many insurers are struggling to effectively respond to their customers’ demands for a better digital experience. They’re hampered by legacy information systems that are inadequate for modern purposes. On the other side of the counter, those outdated systems are making it hard for insurance employees to do their jobs to the best of their ability; 70% of employees in the sector have more work to do than they have time for.

Eradicating these frustrations is therefore a business-critical priority for insurers going forward. The customer experience (CX) and the employee experience (EX) must be addressed and optimised simultaneously, requiring a focus on balancing back-office optimisation and customer-facing excellence.

As these two facets become increasingly linked, it can be more useful for insurers to think of it in a singular term, approaching the task by building a total experience (TX) business strategy to differentiate themselves in a fiercely competitive and dynamic market.

Transforming the way customer data is managed

McKinsey also has some stats to back up the importance of managing CX effectively in this new digital age: companies that do so typically see a 20% improvement in customer satisfaction, a 15% increase in sales conversion, a 30% lower cost-to-serve and a 30% increase in employee engagement.

Getting to those benefits involves transforming the way you manage your customer data to make it more efficient and agile. At its core, this is about being able to understand your customers better so you can make better business decisions and deliver greater satisfaction. This can be achieved by leveraging modern information platforms to streamline internal systems and bring all important data into a single ‘pane-of-glass’ 360-degree customer view.

The EX component of TX comes in here too, as the kind of technology that achieves that 360-degree view makes things much easier for employees, and gives them readily-available insights they can then use to elevate the experiences they offer to customers, including joined-up interactions and personalised service and engagement.

Finding harmony across the channel mix

Once the foundations of the 360-degree view is in place, insurance companies can begin to build out the seamless experience demanded by customers across the mix of different channels, including websites and applications, over the phone or in-person services.

As an example, modern technology can facilitate self-service tools, to add convenience for customers and decrease the burden on employees, allowing them to focus on delivering more strategic, valuable engagements elsewhere.

To touch on the ongoing topic du jour, there are also many demonstrable use cases for AI in insurance already. Combined with analytics, it can be used to help reduce information overload and optimise customer experiences, by giving support teams with AI-driven intelligence to anticipate the next-best action, next-best offer, and next-best channel to engage customers with.  Furthermore, AI can be utilised to empower employees to engage with customers by writing relevant communications, by summarising claim documentations to expedite decisions.

The Future of Total Experience

As economic turbulence continues, insurers are heavily focused on operational efficiency. As a strategy that harmonises customer experience excellence and streamlined back-end operations, total experience offers more than just another buzzword in the digital age. Gartner states that ‘Improving the customer experience (CX) ranked higher in the survey this year than more strategic focuses, such as growing revenue or new products/services development to support transformation.’

TX can be key to driving success through benefits such as:

  • Building lifetime relationships with customers by providing rich, relevant, and targeted communications across all channels
  • Empowering and engaging employees by ensuring they have the most current and relevant information across critical business systems with a single source of customer truth
  • Making better business decisions by leveraging AI to deliver actionable insights to employees.

Geneen talked about taking the experience first, with the financial success to follow. In today’s new environment of digital insurance, creating the right experience first is what will lead to long-term success. That involves both end customers and the employees that are responsible for serving them. By leveraging technology to offer cohesive and integrated solutions for both employee and customer experiences, insurance companies can ride the wave of change currently washing over the industry and come out the other side on top.

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Business

AI in Investment: A Guide for Asset Managers

Source: Finance derivative

Giacomo Barigazzi ,Co-founder, Axyon AI

In today’s dynamic investment landscape, the race to harness new technologies for a competitive advantage is more fierce than ever. For those in the asset management sector, embracing innovation isn’t just a choice—it’s a necessity to stay ahead in the relentless pursuit of investment opportunities.

The bedrock of investment management has always been grounded in exhaustive research and due diligence. However, the rapid evolution of technology mandates a shift in strategy. Now, it’s critical for leaders in this space to not just familiarise themselves with, but to fully integrate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into their processes.

Exploring the Varieties of AI in Asset Management

It’s essential for asset managers to recognise the specific AI technologies available to them, as this understanding can greatly influence their approach to investment strategy. Broadly speaking, AI in asset management can be categorised into generative and predictive models, each with distinct capabilities and applications.

Generative AI, powered by advanced machine learning techniques, is designed to produce new data that mimic real-world information, such as text, images, and more. This technology is especially useful for creating realistic and diverse datasets, enhancing personalisation, and improving the accessibility of financial services. For asset managers, generative AI can play a crucial role in developing innovative solutions and strategies by generating novel insights and scenarios.

On the other hand, Predictive AI focuses on analysing historical data to forecast future trends and patterns. This aspect of AI is invaluable for asset managers aiming to anticipate market movements and adjust their strategies accordingly. The predictive capabilities of AI provide a strategic edge by enabling more informed decision-making and risk assessment.

For asset managers intent on leveraging AI to enhance their operations, distinguishing between these AI types is a fundamental step. By adopting the appropriate AI technologies, they can significantly improve client outcomes, operational efficiencies, and, ultimately, investment performance.

Creating a personalised client experience

Improved performance is not the only advantage AI brings to asset management; it significantly enhances the client experience by enabling the development of personalised services. For clients, generative AI tools like chatbots and virtual assistants establish a continuous support system that provides instant responses to queries, as well as up-to-date insights on market developments and portfolio adjustments.

A heightened level of personalisation throughout the investment journey ensures clients are not just satisfied but also better informed – a dynamic which undoubtedly fosters greater human relationships in the industry.

Strategic considerations for asset managers

As the widespread adoption of AI in the financial services sector continues to materialise, asset managers face a crucial task in nailing down the right WealthTech solution. It’s not just about adoption; it’s about making strategic choices.

Ultimately, companies expect to see a strong ROI after adopting an AI solution. Only by making a well-informed choice will they see the expected tangible impact of AI in asset management. A lack of due diligence in the procurement process risks introducing a solution that is both ineffective and disruptive.

Integration is key. AI solutions should align seamlessly with existing systems to avoid unwanted disruption to day-to-day operations. Therefore, choosing a provider that is ready to provide extensive training to support a smooth assimilation into operations should also be a priority for management.

There is an element of self-assessment required in the decision-making process. By recognising areas in a firm that require enhancement and understanding the specific value offered by each AI solution, leaders will be best positioned to identify a product that will bring significant improvements in targeted areas.

With a sea of options available in 2024, selecting an AI solution demands thoughtful consideration. Managers need to assess how each aligns with their investment strategy and delivers results. Consulting with experts and analysing case studies from similar businesses equips managers with valuable insights for informed decision-making.

AI as an empowerment tool

While AI will be a revolutionary tool in the asset management industry that will drive efficiency and innovation, it is not intended to replace the human touch. The technology should be viewed as a tool that empowers asset managers to focus on high-value work of greater importance to clients.

AI’s transition from a nascent curiosity to an integral business tool underscores a pivotal shift in industry dynamics. Asset managers who are slow to adopt these technologies risk falling behind in a market that’s increasingly influenced by AI’s capabilities. By contrast, those dedicated to swiftly and responsibly adopting this technology will likely be rewarded with an extra edge in performance.

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Business

BALANCING ACT: HOW A MULTICHANNEL APPROACH TO COMMUNICATIONS CAN DRIVE ENGAGEMENT 

Source: Finance Derivative

Tom Rahder, from Esendex, discusses how digitisation, and use of mobile messaging has transformed the banking industry, and where it can go from here. 

Barely a week goes by that we don’t see reports of banks closing more of their branches. 

And while they might come under fire for it at times, these closures reflect the fundamental shift in how we do banking today. 

Covid accelerated the change, of course – but digitisation of financial services had been happening for a long time. The rise of online-only challenger banks, and a growing number of ways to manage our finances online, has meant that the local high street branch has become redundant for many people. Young people in particular may never step foot in one because they have no need to: they can do everything from an app on their phone instead.

Most of us don’t think twice about using self-serve and/or automated digital tools for straightforward transactions, like transferring money between accounts. 

But our research also suggests that nearly 70% of those experiencing financial difficulties would rather manage their own repayment plan rather than have an ‘unpleasant’ conversation, and almost two-fifths would opt for an automated service over speaking to a human. So, far from being ‘second best’, an automated environment can provide the privacy people need to address complex challenges they’d once shied away from.

It goes without saying that any branch closures must be sensitively handled and communicated to ensure that the customers who still rely on them, many of whom may be elderly, disabled or vulnerable, aren’t left behind. 

To their credit, most banks recognise this, and will point people to nearby branches, set up pop-up counters in public places, and remind them that the Post Office is available for everyday banking. They also offer free digital skills training courses to empower customers to manage their finances in a fast, secure and convenient way. 

Unlocking the value of multichannel communications 

The reason why so many customers prefer to self-serve is largely down to the range and quality of communications available today. 

Forward-thinking firms recognise that choosing the right channels is critical if they want to deliver outstanding experiences in a competitive sector. 

A multichannel strategy doesn’t mean introducing as many channels as possible but meeting customers where they are, and continually monitoring the effectiveness of all your communications. It means balancing ease and convenience with security, and understanding how different channels drive actions – whether it be a clear and direct SMS for two-factor authentication, or WhatsApp messaging for dialogue.

The financial services sector, like any other, is impacted by wider consumer trends, so we’ve seen a big uptake of WhatsApp for Business messaging recently. It’s a channel that most people are already active on and feel comfortable with – so they are usually more likely to engage with banks, building societies and other lenders that offer it.

The good thing about WhatsApp is that it allows contact centre teams to manage multiple conversations at once, so people don’t have to endure long waiting times to speak to someone on the phone. It can also bring down the cost-to-serve, and free up staff to support customers who need it, including those who can’t easily access a branch. 

Two-way messaging, available via SMS and chat too, helps customers to feel listened to and deepens their connection with a business. They can discuss their issue and come to a resolution in a way that is most convenient for them, and have a written record for reference.

Looking ahead

As mentioned before, consumer demands are changing all the time – the challenge is keeping up. Fortunately, there is a growing number of APIs that plug your business messaging platform, allowing you to build on your capabilities with services such as RCS Messaging (Rich Communication Services Messaging). This interactive content, which can include videos and audio, is a powerful way to reach people via their SMS inbox.

Sometimes, we’re thrown a curveball – for example, reports that Gen-Z is shunning smartphones in favour of ‘dumbphones’. 

Whether this trend takes off remains to be seen; what’s important is that organisations in all sectors are able to accurately track metrics like open rates and ROI. It also reminds us that the ubiquitous SMS, with its open rate of 98%, remains as relevant today as ever. 

Last but not least, don’t be afraid to ask them exactly what they want too, rather than waiting for them to switch off and go elsewhere. A quick-fire SMS survey is a good way to gauge opinion and track trends over time, so you can invest in the channels that will deliver the most value to both your customers and the business. 

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