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The year of the app: five transport predictions for 2023

Peter O’Driscoll, Managing Director, RingGo

In 2009 Apple trademarked the phrase “There’s an app for that” to showcase the growth of app availability on its iOS app marketplace. Since then, the app boom has revolutionised lifestyles and, over the space of a decade, apps have become commonplace and vital for daily functions, with downloadable technology on smartphones intrinsic to leisure, business, retail, and transport services.

Drilling down into transport, we can see that sweeping changes in app culture are impacting the way we travel. Traditionally transport has been commodity-based: you purchase a car to go from A to B. Now apps enable the servitisation of mobility, with solutions facilitating everything from e-mobility and ride-sharing, to practical features such as mapping, locating charging points, and paying for parking, all underpinned by data networks and simplified user experience.

Looking further ahead to 2027, Gartner predicts more than 50% of the global population will be daily active users of multiple super apps. These are platforms ‘like a Swiss army knife’ that house a variety of services in one ecosystem, deploying modular micro-apps for a personalised experience. With super apps, tapping on one icon will manage multiple aspects of your day, and the acceleration towards this new era of app technology demonstrates how deep the impact of apps has been so far.

With apps in mind, I am looking at the next 12 months to predict the ways transport will change for the better, the ways automation and technology will improve lives, and how apps will play an integral role in radically shifting the needle toward enhanced mobility.

  • Smartphone technology will be engineered with all demographics in mind

Despite preconceptions of ageism, technology-enabled solutions are used by all types of drivers, with demographics across the nation taking advantage of technology’s benefits to convenience. Focusing specifically on the elderly, 9 in 10 (86%) UK pensioners believe smartphones make their lives significantly better according to OnePoll.

Almost two-thirds (64%) believed their depiction in media was either negative or ambivalent, while almost half (45%) have been made to feel frustrated (37%), silly (29%), or angry (27%) by younger people patronising their ability to use their phone. With this in mind, in 2023 I predict that more companies will take an inclusive approach when it comes to engineering technology for smartphones. This will involve ensuring that solutions cater to their needs with three user experience points in mind: accessibility, functionality, and mobility.

When planning journeys from A to B, and rounding off a route by paying for parking, drivers in the UK can expect to see improvements to practical usage and integration of technology in their daily lives.

  • There will be more competition in the market and app choice for motorists

The opening of the market to competition outside of the confines of the traditional single-supplier model will begin to gather momentum, and this will mean a wider choice of preferred apps for motorists. In 2022, Open Market pilots in Manchester City Council and Oxfordshire County Council, using the DfT-funded National Parking Platform, showed that it is possible to have multiple providers competing at the same location, bringing more choice and reliability to consumers and councils alike. And now, new entrants that provide services outside of the parking ecosystem will come into play. 

With motorists free to use their app of choice this will reduce costs to the motorist and increase digitisation. Evidence from Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council (BCP), who made the move to multiple cashless parking providers in 2021, shows that digital penetration grew by more than 250% over 2 years with the introduction of multiple phone parking providers so app parking now accounts for more than 55% of all parking transactions.  This is a trend that I expect to see grow, as more authorities adopt the Open Market construct.

  • 3G sunsetting will increase reliance on app-based transport services

The unprecedented growth of 5G, outpacing 3G and 4G uptake, represents the quickest generational rollout for the mobile industry. As 5G is setting new standards of hyperfast connectivity and its star is rising, 3G is fading into obsolescence, which will cause trickle-down effects that mark significant changes in the way we park.

Network providers will be retiring band services, and as this happens hardware will be affected. In parking, chip and pin services for payment reliant on 3G modem hardware will stop working. 3G sunsetting presents challenges for physical payment methods, and potentially costly upgrades to machines to stay connected. Many people are still unaware of these changes, as 79% of people have no idea that the 3G network is being phased out, according to a 2020 survey.

App-based solutions will remain unaffected by network alterations, as these services rely on device connectivity to mobile networks across 4G, 5G, or IVR for those paying via phone call. Apps circumvent these challenges and I predict they will be more attractive to Councils and operators in 2023.

  • Digitalisation positively impacting transport strategy for Councils and operators

The main dimension of the impact of digitalisation is around the end-user experience, but the advent of technological solutions also provides useful back-end data. For Councils and operators, with increased digitalisation comes more data points and information about vehicle types, emissions, and dwell times. Armed with this information authorities can use this data to make informed decisions around environmental policies and wider parking controls to make our cities more liveable and more manageable.

Trends in the transport industry are part of a moving picture, and how much is changed in this space is dependent on investment and strategy. Forward-thinking Councils and operators have already seen the benefits of harnessing technology advancements, as well as data-driven insights from Mobility-as-a-Service providers.

Progression of a data strategy is planned for the Government, as over 90% of senior civil servants will be upskilled on digital and data essentials, with learning embedded into performance and development standards, as part of the ‘Transforming for a digital future‘ policy. In 2023, on a local level, I hope to see continued progression of digitalisation ambitions, which will have noticeable and important impacts on the ground level, for the drivers who can take advantage of new transport developments.

  • There will be a shift from manual to automatic services in transport

Over the past 12 months, we’ve seen some great examples of automatic solutions for transport in the UK, with automatic number plate recognition technology playing a part in optimising parking payments. As adoption continues, more drivers will be able to benefit from touch-free solutions.

When travelling into a town or city centre, it’s often the process that motorists would locate a space, and pay for parking via an app. Should the motorist need more time, they can potentially top up their parking session via extending on the app. Collaboration between parking providers and operators means that camera technology can completely automate the process and charges are calculated separate to manual management.

Automatic payment facilitates touch-free entry and exit to parking facilities, and solutions are being trialled in the UK currently. The parking transaction starts and ends completely autonomously, bypassing pay machines. In 2023 we will see an expansion of these high-quality technology solutions for drivers, allowing for new and exciting levels of convenience for urban travellers.

Looking at the horizon

In 2023 I believe we’ll see great strides made toward Mobility-as-a-Service models for motorists, with digital channels enabling better flow in transport. There will be more elements of disposability when moving from A to B, and transport service providers will look at becoming holistic one-stop shops. The popularity of the likes of Uber and Lime attests to the fact that mindsets are already shifting towards service-based transport.

Within the microcosm of parking, providers are linking up mobility services for motorists using apps, and there will be scope to manage a journey in its entirety from one point of contact; mapping, location, payment, and charging services can be housed in one space. We’re also seeing app-based services create actionable data streams for Councils and operators to improve transport management in local areas. These benefits are ticks in the pro column for choosing apps, as they herald an age for more liveable towns and cities.

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Could electric vehicles be the answer to energy flexibility?

Rolf Bienert, Managing and Technical Director, OpenADR Alliance

Last year, what was the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and Ofgem published its Electric Vehicle Smart Charging Action plans to unlock the power of electric vehicle (EV) charging. Owners would have the opportunity to charge their vehicles while powering their homes with excess electricity stored in their car.

Known as vehicle to grid (V2G) or vehicle to everything (V2X), it is the communication between a vehicle and another entity. This could be the transfer of electricity stored in an EV to the home, the grid, or to other destinations. V2X requires bi-directional energy flow from the charger to the vehicle and bi- or unidirectional flow from the charger to the destination, depending on how it is being used.

While there are V2X pilots already out there, it’s considered an emerging technology. The Government is backing it with its V2X Innovation Programme with the aim of addressing barriers to enabling energy flexibility from EV charging. Phase 1 will support development of V2X bi-directional charging prototype hardware, software or business models, while phase 2 will support small scale V2X demonstrations.

The programme is part of the Flexibility Innovation Programme which looks to enable large-scale widespread electricity system flexibility through smart, flexible, secure, and accessible technologies – and will fund innovation across a range of key smart energy applications.

As part of the initiative, the Government will also fund Demand Side Response (DSR) projects activated through both the Innovation Programme and its Interoperable Demand Side Response Programme (IDSR) designed to support innovation and design of IDSR systems. DSR and energy flexibility is becoming increasingly important as demand for energy grows.

The EV potential

EVs offer a potential energy resource, especially at peak times when the electricity grid is under pressure. Designed to power cars weighing two tonnes or more, EV batteries are large, especially when compared to other potential energy resources.

While a typical solar system for the home is around 10kWh, electric car batteries range from 30kWh or more. A Jaguar i-Pace is 85kWh while the Tesla model S has a 100kWh battery, which offers a much larger resource. This means that a fully powered EV could support an average home for several days.

But to make this a reality the technology needs to be in place first to ensure there is a stable, reliable and secure supply of power. Most EV charging systems are already connected via apps and control platforms with pre-set systems, so easy to access and easy to use. But, owners will need to factor in possible additional hardware costs, including invertors for charging and discharging the power.

The vehicle owner must also have control over what they want to do. For example, how much of the charge from the car battery they want to make available to the grid and how much they want to leave in the vehicle.

The concept of bi-directional charging means that vehicles need to be designed with bi-directional power flow in mind and Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment will have to be upgraded as Electric Vehicle Power Exchange Equipment (EVPE).

Critical success factors

Open standards will be also critical to the success of this opportunity, and to ensure the charging infrastructure for V2X and V2G use cases is fit for purpose.

There are also lifecycle implications for the battery that need to be addressed as bi-directional charging can lead to degradation and shortening of battery life. Typically EVs are sold with an eight-year battery life, but this depends on the model, so drivers might be reluctant to add extra wear and tear, or pay for new batteries before time.

There is also the question of power quality. With more and more high-powered invertors pushing power into the grid, it could lead to questions about power quality that is not up to standard, and that may require periodic grid code adjustments.

But before this becomes reality, it has to be something that EV owners want. The industry is looking to educate users about the benefits and opportunities of V2X, but is it enough? We need a unified message, from automotive companies and OEMs, to government, and a concerted effort to promote new smart energy initiatives.

While plans are not yet agreed with regards to a ban on the sale on new petrol and diesel vehicles, figures from the IEA show that by 2035, one in four vehicles on the road will be electric. So, it’s time to raise awareness the opportunities of these programs.

With trials already happening in the UK, US, and other markets, I’m optimistic that it could become a disruptor market for this technology.

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Navigating the commercial vehicle sustainability conundrum

By David Wilson, Business Development Advisor, NEOL Copper Technologies Ltd.

As road transport companies implement their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) strategies to ensure they are contributing positively to the planet and society while also being run ethically and transparently, they are faced with a conundrum.

With increasing regulatory and social scrutiny on carbon emissions, the transportation industry which is the second largest (20%) contributor to carbon emissions worldwide, faces growing pressure to meet the near-term net-zero targets, requiring an immediate move to being more sustainable.

The industry has recently undergone significant changes that have impacted the cost of running a successful business. Factors such as high fuel costs, increased labour expenses, and maintenance costs, as well as excessive costs to renew the fleet, have all contributed to this. Additionally, businesses now need to consider how to incorporate the future of electric and autonomous vehicles.

The future of electric vehicles

ESG strategies such as investing in fuel-efficient, low-emission technologies and adopting alternative sustainable fuel sources are essential to reduce carbon emissions, air pollution, and preserve natural resources, while protecting the industry’s long-term viability.

In order to make the industry more sustainable electric trucks will need to play a significant role. The migration to electric trucks is also an option for the fleet manager but there is presently a narrow choice of vehicles, an associated high procurement or lease cost, and a lack of public charging infrastructure.

Most commercial vehicle OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) now offer a range of electric trucks that are specifically designed for zero-emission deliveries. However, the use of heavy-duty electric trucks for long-range transport is not feasible yet, mainly because the batteries and charging power are insufficient. The large-scale adoption of electric trucks is going to take time, and it may not be until 2035 – emphasizing that the electrification of the trucking industry is around 10 years behind passenger cars in terms of electrification.

Transitioning away from fossil fuel is a complex challenge for fleet managers. It will take time for a complete shift of the 600,000+ heavy good vehicles currently navigating the UK roads to electric power. To address the issue promptly and enhance the fuel efficiency and sustainability of the current fleet, proactive measures are imperative to optimise their performance and curtail emissions immediately.

Addressing the sustainability conundrum

The vast majority of today’s commercial vehicles on the road today are powered by internal combustion engines (ICE) that run on diesel fuel. Since the first introduction of European exhaust emission standards in 1993, more stringent guidelines have been released every four to five years to reduce and eliminate harmful pollutants such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter from new vehicles sold in the EU.

 To meet the latest Euro VI (2015) emission standard, trucks are now typically equipped with diesel particulate filters (DPF) to capture particulate matter and lubricant ash, and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technology to convert harmful nitrogen oxides to nitrogen and water, and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) technology to lower the combustion temperature, reduce nitrogen oxides, and improve engine efficiency.

Euro VI engines are advanced and highly sophisticated systems that offer dependable and efficient performance. Together with the correct low-SAPS (sulphated ash, phosphorous, and sulphur) and low viscosity e.g. SAE 5W-30 engine lubricant, the fleet manager will benefit from reduced fuel consumption and warranted protection of the engine and exhaust aftertreatment devices (ATD).

As engine hardware has advanced, so has the lubricant technology. However, even with the latest low-viscosity oils, levels of fuel saving at 1-1.5% (compared to higher-viscosity oils) have not reached its full potential. Moreover, the continued use of metal-containing detergents and ZDDP (zinc dithiophosphate) antiwear components risk negatively impacting the performance and efficiency of the DPF, as well as the precious metal catalysts & sensors in the SCR units. This can lead to unplanned service and replacement of one or more of the ATDs, causing costly downtime for fleet managers.

 Euro 7 emissions regulations will be implemented in a few years, and it will require ATDs to perform as new for 200,000 km or 10 years. Therefore, the lubricant industry is facing a new challenge of lowering the levels   in engine lubricants even further.

Reducing unexpected downtime with technical lubricants

The fleet manager has access to high-quality diesel engines and lubricant technology, but they are concerned about unplanned mechanical issues due to the wear and tear of components from extended use. Additionally, the blockage of DPFs (which creates backpressure and increases fuel consumption) and the possible failure of sensors may lead to faults being registered on the truck’s OBD (on-board diagnostics) computer systems, still causing great concern for managers as they strive for maximum productivity and profitability.

Whilst the use of fossil fuels will remain crucial to power heavy-duty diesel engines, we must wait for further advancements in electrification. However, we can improve the lubricants currently being used to make commercial vehicles more efficient, with lower emissions and greater fuel economy. By doing this, we can reduce unwanted unplanned downtime for repairs or component replacements.

It is easy to see the clear link between reducing wear to increase the longevity of your machine assets. Additionally, by reducing friction, we can improve fuel savings which helps to increase efficiency, all essential steps towards acting more sustainably and making changes for a better future.

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Preparing for the Surge: Meeting the MCS Requirements of Electric Trucks

John Granby, Director of eTruck & Van, EO Charging and Erik Kanerva, Sales Director at Kempower

Auto electrification is moving at a rapid pace, with electric vehicles (EVs) going from a passion project for early technology adopters to the mainstream – especially when you consider the need to electrify consumer and commercial vehicles ahead of the government’s 2035 Zero Emission Vehicle mandate.

Electrification is also starting to play a vital role in public policy and commercial plans, leading to vehicle availability and a variety of improvements and increasing interest among commercial fleets’ prospective customers. As a result, all of the main car and van manufacturers have a respectable EV offering, and the eBus industry is well on its way to proposing a similarly credible offering for citizens.

Heavy-duty vehicle electrification has progressed slowly, but the pace has picked up over the last year, with several of the major truck manufacturers testing completely electric heavy trucks that are now near-ready to enter the general market.

This is a critical shift in the move towards net zero, given that heavy commercial vehicles account for around 25% of CO2 emissions from road transport emissions in the EU and approximately 6% of the region’s overall emissions. It’s a similar situation in the US, where medium and heavy-duty trucks account for around 29% of total road transport emissions or approximately 7% of the country’s total but make up fewer than 5% of all vehicles on the road.

Having clear goals and objectives in place for fleet electrification will be vital to ensuring the transport sector is on track. For example, Scania’s goal is that 50% of all vehicles it sells annually by 2030 will be electric. Despite Scania being the slowest into the market with battery electric vehicles, other vehicle manufacturers are following the same target, with Volvo Trucks setting itself a target for 50% fully electric vehicles by 2030 and the same with Renault, for example.

Meeting this ambitious goal will require the appropriate charging infrastructure in place so customers have the confidence to invest in the large-scale electrification of their fleets. That is one of the reasons why charging system manufacturer Kempower expects the commercial vehicle DC charging market in Europe and North America to have a 37% compound annual growth rate until 2030.

Trucks require substantial battery packs to provide a similar range as traditional engines, and having the right infrastructure in place to keep them regularly charged is certainly a key factor to consider when electrifying truck fleets. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), trucks will require up to 279,000 charging outlets by 2030, with 84% located in fleet hubs. By 2030, buses will require up to 56,000 charging outlets, with fleet hubs accounting for 92% of the total.

The Charging Interface Initiative (CharIN) is a global organisation that has been working on a standard for the rapid charging of trucks for several years. CharIN developed the Megawatt Charging System (MCS) concept, which serves as the foundation for the ISO and IEC standards which govern the design, installation, and operation of truck fast charging infrastructures.

The MCS is intended to standardise the quick delivery of enormous amounts of charging power to vehicles and provide stronger communication, which minimises downtime caused by unsuccessful charging events.

Customers who drive commercial vehicles follow particular driving habits. By taking advantage of the required break time from the hours-of-service restrictions governing their drivers, customers can travel further each day thanks to the increased charge rate that MCS offers. Better electrification of commercial cars is made possible by legislation that mandates that drivers take rest breaks. As a result, shorter charging durations to accommodate these breaks are beneficial.

The MCS will operate at up to 3,000A and 1,25 KV at its final development stage, delivering up to 3,75 MW of power when charging. With the backing of a significant segment of the industry, MCS is founded on an international consensus on technical standards. An internationally recognised standard is essential to promote harmonised solutions that reduce costs and boost interoperability without sacrificing safety and uptime.

Trucks on the highway are a key focus of the MCS, not only depot pricing. Large truck units operating long-haul routes and some smaller rigid trucks operating cross-border short-haul deliveries—such as logistics organisations operating deliveries between the United Kingdom and continental Europe—pay particular attention to this issue.

Most MCS charging occurs while drivers take breaks from their routes, but some depots may have a single MCS charger on site to do a flash charge if a truck needs to be turned around quickly. In order to balance this unit’s demand against other chargers on site, load management is crucial because it will require a power supply of at least 1 MW+.

Fleet operators should look to consider incorporating MCS into their whole charging ecosystem and solutions, regardless of whether they are thinking about how electrification will affect their fleet of vehicles on the road or how their depots will operate.

Adopting cutting-edge energy management technology solutions will enable effective fleet electrification, particularly at depots. Investing in effective load management technologies will be critical to maximising existing grid infrastructure capacity while decreasing the need for additional investments in generation or distribution capacity.

Investing in and deploying effective energy management technologies is the key to a smoother, more efficient shift for commercial fleet operators. They are critical in lowering energy expenses, both economically and environmentally.

Energy management solutions for charging electric fleets will also help maximise existing grid capacity, reducing the need to invest in new generation or distribution capacity. This will be an essential factor for fleet managers to consider as eTruck fleets expand and other commercial vehicle fleets, such as buses, increase demands on infrastructure.

With unprecedented energy and investment going into electrification, 2024 looks to be a pivotal year for picking up the momentum of progress around MCS in the logistics sector. If done right, it will create a shift of optimism in the market to accelerate the electrification of commercial fleets and promises to positively impact other sectors, such as marine and aviation, contributing significantly to reducing carbon emissions.

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