Connect with us

Sustainability

Analysis: Pandemic debt adds to challenge of funding world’s climate goals

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON, Nov 18 (Reuters) – Huge spending by governments kept the world economy afloat during the pandemic as officials mobilized a fiscal response not seen since World War Two to bolster household incomes and give businesses a fighting chance to survive the health crisis.

But the resulting nearly $300 trillion pile of debt held by governments, businesses and households will leave many countries with vulnerable finances and weigh on efforts to address urgent challenges such as climate change and ageing populations.

Even as rich and poor governments take stock of battered finances, inflation is pushing central banks toward higher interest rates and a tightening of monetary policy which, for the indebted, can only make the math less favorable.

“That means higher borrowing costs, higher interest burdens for the government and for the real sectors,” said Emre Tiftik, direct of sustainability research for the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the global association of the financial industry.

“Over the medium term, the issue is all about finding the resources to fund climate goals and most are extremely behind on that,” he added of the rapid decarbonization of the global economy needed to avert a climate crisis.

This month’s Glasgow climate talks produced some new pledges by countries to reduce carbon emissions, but left many questions unanswered about how commitments will be financed and put into practice.

According to the IIF, global debt may just about have hit its peak from the pandemic and may fall slightly by year’s end from the current $296 trillion.

But easing the reliance on carbon-based fuels and mitigating climate damage is expected to require massive public and private investment – on order of $90 trillion by 2030, according to one World Bank estimate.

At this point there’s no global plan for how to underwrite it, and governments’ share of climate investments will have to compete with social, health and other spending priorities set to intensify because of demographic trends like ageing populations.

The vast pandemic stimulus deployed by the rich world propped up their economies successfully, and was also sustainable in a landscape dominated by low or near-zero interest rates. But as the cycle switches to policy tightening, this will mean higher interest costs, higher risk of possible debt crises in emerging markets, and less capacity to meet climate goals.

“The balance of benefits and costs of debt accumulation is increasingly tilted towards costs,” scholars at the Washington-based Brookings Institution wrote last month, citing possible constraints on policy and “crowding out” of private investment.

GOING PRIVATE?

Low-income countries will be hit hardest, with some already facing unsustainable debt levels and others locked out of the more favorable financing available to wealthier countries, according to London School of Economics professor Amar Bhattacharya.

“The cost of servicing debt is very high and that can interact with climate ambition and climate vulnerability,” he said, urging more effort to restructure those countries’ debt.

By contrast, developed countries can finance debts in domestic currencies usually at low rates, and in the case of the U.S., Europe and some others, have central banks with effectively unlimited capacity to absorb debt and create bank reserves.

U.S. Congressional Budget Office projections in July 2021 showed U.S. debt service costs as a percent of gross domestic product rising only modestly in the coming decade from about 1.6% in 2020 to 2.7% in 2031 – even with overall debt rising to 106% of GDP by then, a level which in prior years would have triggered alarm bells.

“Economically the most advanced economies do not face much of a debt constraint right now,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard University economics professor who has tried to reshape the debate about public debt to focus more on the servicing costs and less on the total amount.

But it is politically sensitive, prompting Congressional officials to trim President Joe Biden’s proposed climate investments. And there’s still a chance of disruption from either an abrupt shift in Federal Reserve policy, and the potential impact on global financial markets that could trigger, or if Congress fails to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

Europe is going through its own balancing act, as EU capitals debate how to relax rules that oblige governments to keep budget deficits below 3% of GDP and debt below 60%.

Most agree those restrictions are no longer realistic, and would require debt cuts that are way too ambitious for most EU countries, keep economic growth on track and make room for the annual 650 billion euros the EU needs to tackle climate change over the next decade.

Such realities explain the fervor in Glasgow that greeted U.N. climate envoy Mark Carney’s announcement that banks and other institutions with a total $130 trillion of private capital had made combating climate change a priority.

But as critics questioned whether all of that astronomic sum was really aligned to a net-zero carbon world, it was clear that governments, whether rich or poor, will have to figure out how they do much of the heavy-lifting, regardless of any immediate debt squeeze they may face.

What might focus minds, as the LSE’s Bhattacharya told a webinar this week, is if the investment is not found now to tame the growing climate impacts on the economy, then the world’s debt is likely to become even more unmanageable.

“That investment is the best way for actually assuring long-term debt sustainability,” he said.

Reporting by Howard Schneider and Mark John; Additional reporting and graphic by Marc Jones; Editing by Leslie Adler

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Solving the Future of Decarbonisation in Real-Time

Source: Finance Derivative

Jamil  Ahmed, Distinguished Engineer at Solace

The energy sector has faced many disruptions and challenges in recent years, from pipeline disruption to the growing demand for hydrogen. However, the most significant of all of these is the global desire to decarbonise. The growing concern over fossil fuels has created intense pressure for businesses to transition towards renewable energy sources and cut carbon emissions. Governing bodies have begun to impose regulations on organisations to force them to cut emissions by 3.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) a year by 2050, which amounts to a 90 per cent reduction in current emissions.

The constant development of markets and digital transformations will only increase the demand for energy in the future across all industries. Therefore, reducing emissions, in reality, is no small feat, however harsh or impressive the targets may be. To make decarbonisation a reality in the near term, businesses must adopt an inward-looking strategy to reduce emissions through their own operations. These are termed Scope 1 emissions and refer to emissions released as a direct result of one’s own current operations. Achieving this requires companies to streamline their operations, and improve their internal visibility to measure and track energy consumption.

Detecting emissions

The major challenge companies face in accurately measuring their energy consumption lies in overcoming the mass amounts of siloed data within their system. These data silos not only diminish productivity but also bury these useful insights, compiled into a mountain of data that is hard to identify and analyse. Ultimately, data silos are a result of organisational infrastructure built for a previous era, one with limited technological adoption, and limited pathways for dataflows. Over time these have created complex organisational barriers.

The lack of data transparency in organisational infrastructure is severely undermining businesses’ ability to gain insight from their existing data. This also impacts their ability to share data with external partners in search of meaningful solutions for decarbonisation. The value of data sharing cannot be overstated when searching for innovative solutions. A recent study shows that 45% of businesses in the energy sector see analytics and innovation as critical tools. With the entire energy sector’s ability to effectively decarbonise hinging on data sharing to drive innovation, gaining greater data insights are non-compensatory.

Another major consideration in decarbonisation is power reliability planning when transitioning to renewable energy sources. Solar and wind energy rely on changeable weather factors for operability, the varying levels of power readiness in these energy sources make them difficult to implement into the national grid. This makes reliably planning this an increasingly complex and important part of the decarbonisation journey as the sector must test for long-term stability and the potential for energy transfers and storage. A solution must be found that can address these real-time concerns.

Reliability in Real-time

Real-time data is the information that is delivered immediately after collation and enables businesses to respond to information at lightning speed. Real-time data has a host of usages in the energy sector, from alerting major weather changes that may impact power reliability to detecting overheating or electrical wastage in appliances. These information transfers are known as an ‘event’ that requires further action or response.

Real-time capabilities play a major role in overcoming data transparency issues associated with the sector, in its ability to connect interactions across systems and processes could enable energy providers to effectively identify opportunities in reducing energy wastage.

Event-driven Decarbonisation

Enter event-driven architecture (EDA), the structure that underpins an organisation’s ability to view event series that occur in their system. EDA decouples the events from the system so that they can be processed and then sent in real-time as a useful information resource. This can then be analysed by resource companies to assist with optimising decarbonisation initiatives.

The strength of EDA is its scalable integration platform, as this allows companies to manage enormous quantities of data traffic coming from multiple data streams and energy sources. From this, energy companies can develop durable systems by aggregating information. This can then be sent to control systems to identify power outages or extreme weather events and conditions.

To achieve this, an architectural layer known as an event mesh is required. An event mesh enables EDA to break down data silos and facilitate the real-time integration of people, processes and systems across geographical boundaries. Implementing an event mesh also upgrades and streamlines existing systems/processes to enable better data transparency in real-time data sharing. It is unsurprising that given the great benefits of EDA both in terms of its scalability, durability and agility that a recent study found 85% of organisations surveyed view EDA as a critical component of their digital transformation efforts.

Decarbonising for the future

Regulations on the energy sector are rapidly increasing, most recently the US Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on August 6th of this year. This Act signals the intense pressure on the energy sector to immediately undertake significant decarbonisation initiatives. It is designed to accelerate the production of greener and more renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Once nations like the US have begun higher production of the technology that can harness these energy sources, others will follow suit. The only way the large-scale adoption of renewable energy sources will occur is if businesses build real-time capabilities to become event-driven businesses. Only then can the transition to decarbonisation and achieving net zero become a reality.

Continue Reading

Business

A zero trust environment is critical for financial services

Source: Finance Derivative

Boris Bialek, Managing Director of Industry Solutions at MongoDB

Not long ago security professionals were still focused on protecting their IT in a similar formation to mediaeval guards protecting a walled city – concentrating on making it as difficult as possible to get inside. Once past this perimeter though, access to what was within was endless. For financial services, this means access to everything from personal identifiable information (PII) including credit card numbers, names, social security information and more ‘marketable data’. Unfortunately, we have many examples of how this type of security doesn’t work, the castle gets stormed and the data isn’t protected. The most famous is still the Equifax incident, where a small breach has led to years of unhappy customers.

Thankfully the mindset has shifted spurred on by the proliferation of networks and applications across geographies, devices and cloud platforms. This has made the classic point to point security obsolete. The perimeter has changed, it is fluid, so reliance on a wall for protection also has to change.

Zero trust presents a new paradigm for cybersecurity. In this context, it is already assumed that the perimeter is breached,no users are trusted, and trust cannot be gained simply by physical or network location. Every user, device and connection must be continually verified and audited.

What might seem obvious, but begs repeating, with the amount of confidential customer and client data that financial institutions hold – not to mention the regulations – this should be an even bigger priority. The perceived value of this data also makes financial services organisations a primary target for data breaches.

But how do you create a zero trust environment?

Keeping the data secure 

While ensuring that access to banking apps and online services is vital, it is actually the database that is the backend of these applications that is a key part of creating a zero trust environment. The database contains so much of an organisation’s sensitive, and regulated, information, as well as data that may not be sensitive but is critical to keeping the organisation running. This is why it is imperative that a database is ready and able to work in a zero trust environment.

As more databases are becoming cloud based services, a big part of this is ensuring that the database is secure by default, meaning it is secure out of the box. This takes some of the responsibility for security out of the hands of administrators because the highest levels of security are in place from the start, without requiring attention from users or administrators. To allow access, users and administrators must proactively make changes – nothing is automatically granted.

As more financial institutions embrace the cloud, this can get more complicated. The  security responsibilities are divided between the clients’ own organisation, the cloud providers and the vendors of the cloud services being used. This is known as the shared responsibility model. This moves away from the classic model where IT owns hardening the servers and security, then needs to harden the software on top – say the version of the database software – and then needs to harden the actual application code. In this model, the hardware (CPU, network, storage) are solely in the realm of the cloud provider that provisions these systems. The service provider for a Data-as-a-Service model then delivers the database hardened to the client with a designated endpoint. Only then does the actual client team and their application developers and DevOps team come into play for the actual “solution”.

Security and resilience in the cloud are only possible when everyone is clear on their roles and responsibilities. Shared responsibility recognizes that cloud vendors ensure that their products are secure by default, while still available, but also that organisations take appropriate steps to continue to protect the data they keep in the cloud.

Authenticate Everyone  

In banks and finance organisations, there is always lots of focus on customer authentication, making sure that accessing funds is as secure as possible. But it is also important to make sure that access to the database on the other end is secure. An IT organisation can use any number of methods to allow users to authenticate themselves to a database. Most often that includes a username and password, but given the increased need to maintain the privacy of confidential customer information by financial services organisations this should only be viewed as a base layer.

At the database layer, it is important to have transport layer security and SCRAM authentication which enables traffic from clients to the database to be authenticated and encrypted in transit.

Passwordless authentication is also something that should be considered – not just for customers, but internal teams as well. This can be done in multiple ways with the database, either auto-generated certificates that are needed to access the database or advanced options for organisations already using X.509 certificates and have a certificate management infrastructure.

Tracking is a key component 

As a highly regulated industry, it is also important to monitor your zero trust environment to ensure that it remains in force and exompasses your database. The database should be able to log all actions or have functionality to apply filters to capture only specific events, users or roles.

Role-based auditing lets you log and report activities by specific roles, such as userAdmin or dbAdmin, coupled with any roles inherited by each user, rather than having to extract activity for each individual administrator. This approach makes it easier for organisations to enforce end-to-end operational control and maintain the insight necessary for compliance and reporting.

Next level encryption

With large amounts of valuable data, financial institutions also need to make sure that they are embracing encryption – in flight, at rest and even in use. Securing data with client-side field-level encryption allows you to move to managed services in the cloud with greater confidence. The database only works with encrypted fields and organisations control their own encryption keys, rather than having the database provider manage them. This additional layer of security enforces an even more fine-grained separation of duties between those who use the database and those who administer and manage it.

Also, as more data is being transmitted and stored in the cloud – some of which are highly sensitive workloads – additional technical options to control and limit access to confidential and regulated data is needed. However, this data still needs to be used. So ensuring that in-use data encryption is part of your zero trust solution is vital. This also enables organisations to confidently store sensitive data, meeting compliance requirements, while also enabling different parts of the business to gain access and insights from it.

Securing data is only going to continue to become more important for all organisations, but for those in financial services the stakes can be even higher. Leaving the perimeter mentality to the history books and moving towards zero trust – especially as cloud and as-a-service infrastructure permeates the industry – is the only way to protect such valuable data.

Continue Reading

Business

Green growth: The unstoppable rise of climate technology investment

Source: Finance Derivative

With the investment community focusing more and more on renewable technologies, investor interest is at an all-time high. Ian Thomas, managing director, Turquoise, reviews the current investment landscape and highlights the opportunities for investors keen to capitalise on this growing trend.

Green, or climate, finance is a label for providers of finance who are supporting investments seeking positive environmental impact. The label covers investments in green infrastructure, venture capital investment in clean technologies and renewable energy. Green finance has grown by leaps and bounds in recent years, supporting public wellbeing and social equity while reducing environmental risks and improving ecological integrity.

Worldwide, energy investment is forecast to increase by 8% in 2022 to $2.4 trillion, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency, with the expected rise coming mostly from clean energy – $1.4 trillion in total. To put this rocketing figure into some perspective, clean energy investment only rose by 2% annually in the five years following the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Energy transition investment has some way to go, however – between 2022 and 2025, to get on track for global net zero, it must rise by three times the current amount to average $2,063 billion. [1]

Turquoise has been active for almost 20 years as a venture capital investor and adviser to companies in the climate technology space that are raising capital and/or selling their business to a strategic acquirer. Reviewing current industry investment news, as well as drawing on examples from the portfolio of Low Carbon Innovation Fund 2 (LCIF2), managed by Turquoise, I have commented below the latest on the renewable energy trends most piquing investor interest.

Solar PV

Renewable power is leading the charge when it comes to investment, with wind energy and solar PV emerging as the cheapest option for new power generation across many countries, and now accounting for more than 80% of total power sector investment. Solar power is responsible for half of new investment in renewable power, with spending divided roughly equally between utility scale projects and distributed solar PV systems.

This huge increase in solar spending, which continues in spite of supply chain issues affecting raw material delivery, has been driven by Asia, largely China (BloombergNEF, 2022). Meanwhile, Europe is re-doubling its efforts to achieve an energy transition away from Russian gas and other fossil fuels, building on investment that was already rising steadily prior to the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Germany, the UK, France and Spain all exceeded $10 billion on low-carbon spending in 2021.[2]

Wind

Last year was a record year for offshore wind deployment with more than 20GW commissioned, accounting for approximately $40 billion in investment. The first half of 2022 saw $32 billion invested in offshore wind, 52% more than in the same period in 2021 (BloombergNEF, 2022). Taking into account also onshore wind, in 2021 investment was spearheaded by China, followed by the US and Brazil.[3]

In the UK, suggested targets include plans to host 50GW of offshore wind capacity, as well as 10GW of green and blue hydrogen production, by 2030. Investors will naturally be encouraged by proposals to simplify the planning process across the board for renewable projects.[4] France and Germany have also increased their offshore wind targets, signalling further support for investment.

Decarbonising housing: the business opportunity

The need to decarbonise residential housing, made all the more urgent by current energy prices, also offers substantial scope for investment. The gas price spike is naturally increasing interest in technology such as electric heat pumps, which had already enjoyed 15% growth in 2021 albeit from a very low base.

Recently, Turquoise announced an investment by Low Carbon Innovation Fund 2 (LCIF2) in Switchd, which operates MakeMyHouseGreen, a data-driven platform that allows homeowners to source and install domestic renewable energy generation, including solar panels and battery storage with other energy saving products in the pipeline. The investment will enable Switchd to roll out the MakeMyHouseGreen platform to a much larger number of customers. The latest episode of the Talks with Turquoise podcast series saw us interview Switchd co-founder Llewellyn Kinch about the UK energy market and national transition to decarbonisation, covering the rise of residential renewable energy and energy efficiency.

Adapting to the low-carbon economy

Meanwhile, investors should not forget opportunities on the other side of the energy market. Renewables are undoubtedly exciting investors, but there are also opportunities for fossil fuel companies to adapt their business models to the low-carbon economy. Turquoise advised GT Energy, a portfolio company from our first fund that develops deep geothermal heat projects, on its sale to IGas Energy, a leading UK onshore oil & gas producer. Under IGas ownership, GT Energy will progress its flagship 14MW project to supply zero-carbon heat to the city of Stoke-on-Trent through a council-owned district heating network.

A broad investment landscape

Forecasts show that renewables will increase to 60% of power generation in Europe by 2030, and 40% in the US and China by the same date.[5] As demand rises for climate technology, the investment opportunities in green finance are far broader than they ever have been. Undoubtedly, as the energy crisis continues, investor interest will continue to soar to even greater heights.

[1] https://www.iea.org/news/record-clean-energy-spending-is-set-to-help-global-energy-investment-grow-by-8-in-2022
[2] https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/global-power-and-renewables-research-highlights-july-2022.html
[3] https://dialogochino.net/en/uncategorised/56938-global-wind-energy-council-vice-chair-brazil-offshore-wind-accelerating-2/
[4] https://www.edie.net/uks-clean-energy-investment-ranking-rises-after-government-sets-95-low-carbon-electricity-target-for-2030/
[5] https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/energy-transition-renewables-remain-the-cornerstone-of-future-power-generation

Continue Reading

Copyright © 2021 Futures Parity.