Source: BetUs
In what was shaping up to be a forgettable Monday evening NBA game in November, a scuffle between reigning MVP Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets and Markieff Morris of the Miami Heat turned the NBA world upside down. Now it’s an actual prop bet at the sportsbook.
In case you weren’t paying attention last week, here’s what shook out:
With under three minutes to play, and the Nuggets stomping the Heat by 17 points, Morris gave Jokic a forearm shiver that threw the Denver center off-balance. As Morris turned around and casually walked off, Jokic retaliated by getting up and shoving Morris to the ground.
No bench-clearing brawls erupted but Jokic and Morris were ejected. The next day, Jokic was suspended and both Morris and Heat teammate Jimmy Butler were fined. But this isn’t the end of all of this. In fact, it may just be getting started.
Jokic vs. Morris: Bump that Sparked a War
The on-court drama could provide a catalyst for a budding rivalry. (And we mean a “real rivalry” like the Pistons-Pacers of the 2000s or the Celtics-Lakers of the 1980s.) Butler began screaming “Bring yo’ ass to the back!” over and over. And true to their word, several Miami Heat players stalked the Nuggets’ locker-room door after the game — like waiting for an after-school brawl in the playground.
While no other altercations occurred that evening, it begs the question of what’s going to happen when Jokic and the Nuggets face Morris, Butler and the Heat again on Nov. 29?
Will there Be More Drama or Violence?
More often than not, these little run-ins don’t get a sequel unless it’s the playoffs. With fewer than three weeks separating the incident and the rematch, recency might play a part in it. But also consider that Jokic and Morris family members are involved — so this one could have roots deeper than the usual flagrant/ejection/suspension combo.
The BetUS Sportsbook posted odds on whether Nikola Jokic and Markieff Morris will both receive flagrant fouls or if they will be ejected — two separate bets available now among special NBA betting lines.
For the rematch, the BetUS sportsbook sets the odds for both players to receive flagrant fouls at +225. The buy-back price on the “No” side of the wager is set at -350.
At even higher odds, bettors can cash in at +450 if both players are ejected from the game. The “No” side for that wager is -850.
Now, you don’t often see odds for flagrant fouls. Good luck even finding statistics for them. So this is murky math water for any NBA betting expert.
The posted odds suggest an implied probability of roughly 30% of double flagrants — which would be an absolutely crazy expectation for an average game. Or, the odds for a double ejection, which imply less than a 20% chance the two players will get tossed — also absurd compared to how often that actually occurs in the NBA.
So, are the “No” bets a solid pick for those who can stomach high-chalk propositions?
Well, before you lay out $1200 dollars to win an “easy” $200, consider that Jokic actually injured Morris. The veteran had to get stretchered out and has missed multiple games with a neck injury. This will not be forgotten when Morris and the Heat take the court again.
Markieff Morris, like his twin, has had a penchant for throwing cheap shots and hard-fouling star players. The brothers are instigators and have generally gotten away with it — until now. Jokic’s retaliation may give Morris pause before pulling the same stunt on him.
It seems well less than 20% unlikely that Morris would have the gall to cheap-shot Jokic again. But it’s not unforeseeable that Jokic could toss an “inadvertent” elbow at Morris, still proving the Balkan is no “soft” European.
But there likely won’t be another melee here, even if the Nuggets and Heat compete at playoff levels. Words will be exchanged, fouls will be drawn, and cooler heads will ultimately prevail.
While we love to see the drama, we can’t recommend a bet online on it. Don’t let us stop you — but you can bet on it.
