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The global stock markets will be volatile in 2023 – how can investors and fund managers navigate it?

Source: Finance Derivative

Kar Yong Ang, Financial Markets Analyst, OctaFX

It has been a dizzying year for the stock market, between global uncertainty, high inflation, and rate hikes. With inflation still uncomfortably high and more rate hikes on the horizon, the market could be in for a bumpy ride in 2023.

You are probably wondering, “What next?” This is a guessing game, at best. Any fund manager or investor who tells you they know what is going to happen is being disingenuous. But if there is one guaranteed constant you can count on in the stock market currently it is volatility. This volatility will bring opportunity to investors aiming to benefit from the twists and turns of stock market.

The volatility opportunity

Over the course of 2022, we have seen broad market indexes decline, and many primary sectors have reported negative returns during Q2–Q3 2022.

The fourth quarter of 2022 is looking to be a calmer quarter, but still filled with volatility and uncertainty.

We do not anticipate much change in market volatility over the next six months since the threats to economic growth remain the same as for this year– namely, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis in Europe, global inflation, and supply chain issues, as well as multiple climate disasters.

For fund managers and DIY traders, this presents a remarkable opportunity to make outsized returns, particularly those sophisticated using derivatives such as contracts-for-difference (CFDs) to benefit off the price movements of stocks, whichever direction they move.

Benefitting from the ups and downs

With traditional trading, traders are buying a stock in the hope that its price will rise later, enabling them to sell at a profit.

In contrast, when trading CFDs, traders can take advantage not only of rising, but also of falling market prices. This can be beneficial when trading in today’s highly volatile markets.

Trading in this way offers a chance to make money from falling markets, rather than having to hold onto investments long term until markets rebound. CFDs can also be traded on *leverage, which enables traders to boost their market exposure and trade bigger volumes for a small initial capital.

The 2023 outlook for the stock market?

The stock market could be set up for another rocky year in 2023 if initial earnings estimates are anything to go by. The biggest banks, including Bank of America, foresee 0% earnings per share growth for the S&P 500. If a recession hits, its expected EPS could fall by 11% on average.

Over the long-term, corporate earnings growth and stock prices have a direct relationship, so if earnings are not growing, there is a good chance that the stock prices will not either, at least until the outlook improves.

In a weak macroeconomic environment, the cyclical sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary are under a negative spotlight and tend to underperform the wider market in falling markets.

Conversely, we anticipate defensive and value stocks within the utilities, natural resources, and consumer staples sectors to be less volatiles in the low growth and higher rate environment.

In any case, diversifying your stocks across different geographies and sectors will decrease company-specific and systemic risks of your portfolio.

Enjoy the ride

We believe the current drivers of the global economy will persist into 2023. U.S. inflation is still uncomfortably high, and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will probably continue to increase interest rates in the first half of 2023. The U.S. bond market yield curve has inverted, signalling a probable recession. Thus, earnings growth will almost certainly slow and the bear market in the S&P 500 will likely persist in 2023.

Furthermore, there are additional geopolitical risks like the war in Ukraine and tensions around Taiwan, not to mention rising COVID cases in China, which might lead to nationwide lockdown and provoke a sharp drop in demand for many commodities.

The U.S. stock market index has already had its worst year in more than a decade. However, there are positive signs as well. Dramatic declines in valuations are often followed by a sharp reversal of the trend.

Indeed, if you take a long-term view, 2023 may provide an excellent buying opportunity. However, more volatility should be expected before the bottom is reached. Traders and fund managers should be ready for many up and down moves. Such an unstable environment offers great opportunities for shorter term traders as they can profit by being both on the short and on the long side of the trade.

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*It is important to note that trading on leverage can come with increased risks. This means that a trader using leverage to multiply a trade by 10 also risks losing 10 times his or her initial outlay. To minimise losses, traders can make use of hedging, a strategy that involves offsetting one’s trades with opposite positions. For instance, a trader buying a particular share can also short a CFD with the same share as its underlying asset. If the share price falls, the loss is compensated by the amounts earned from the CFD.

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Business

Overcoming intricacies of premium processing in the insurance industry

Source: Finance Derivative

By Piers Williams, Global Insurance Manager at AutoRek

Complexity is an unavoidable reality for the intricate world of insurance. For program administrators, including brokers, managing general agents (MGAs) and managing general underwriters (MGUs), accurate management of insurance premium payments and complex workflows like bulk payments and diverse data sources is essential – there cannot be room for error. Unfortunately, poorly executed and complex processes can lead to costly mistakes. This is especially true for essential financial control processes that directly impact the performance of insurance businesses such as premium payment processes – also commonly known in corporate industries as account receivable and payable processes.

In particular, the traditional, manual management of insurance premium payments is what can often lead to unresolved outstanding debt and large balances of unallocated cash. When you combine this with the 30% growth in delegated/program businesses (over 30%+ in the last 3 years), using Excel sheets and the ever-increasing policy volumes, the approach becomes unsustainable and inefficient.

This article will outline the transformative benefits automation offers and the key actionable strategies that will enable program administrators to optimise the management of insurance premium payments for greater efficiency and effectiveness in their financial operations.

Embracing automation: the future of insurance

The future of insurance lies in automation – this is where premium payment processing comes in. Automation enables businesses not to erode margins through write-offs but accelerate cash flow and protect revenue. The primary goal is to accelerate premium reconciliation and allocation by implementing an automated straight-through process, minimising the need for human intervention to ensure that minutes – not hours – are spent on the reconciliation process.

By leveraging automated systems and advanced data integration, premium payment processing has the potential to offer a more streamlined, accurate and effective insurance ecosystem. Automation minimises the likelihood of human error and delays in transaction times; ensuring that precision is at the forefront of the financial processes. This shift towards automation addresses one of the key challenges faced by the insurance industry – eliminating inefficiencies which can lead to costly mistakes and unnecessary delays.

Producing scalability in a competitive market

Program administrators are confronted with a multitude of pain points in their day-to-day operations. Given that program administrators handle a significant amount of insurance policies across multiple binders/programs in the market, considerable admin effort is required to process a vast number of internal and external data sources as well as payments and policy data. As a result, program administrators risk losing valuable time and resources – giving them less time for value-added tasks, like resolving breaks, addressing downstream issues, and creating better partnerships with insurance partners.  

The impact of such operational inefficiencies can impact not only accounts receivable, collections and credit control processes but also business profitability, binder/program performance, competitiveness and reputation to name a few. Without the adoption of more advanced technologies like automation, program administrators are increasingly at threat of not being able to produce scalability in a competitive market.

Whilst automation offers huge efficiency upside for businesses there are also many benefits delivered by simply having a single premium data control platform. One of the most notable challenges with premium payment operations is the often-large numbers of internal and external data sources that must be managed and processed. This data needs to be continuously processed to ensure reporting is up to date and management has a comprehensive view of outstanding premiums, allocated premium and cash positions at any point in time. The management of this data, if not performed within a platform, presents a huge risk from a control perspective, as often premium payments will not be allocated for 30, 60 or 90 days, therefore needing a solution to keep track of all data automatically to ensure efficiency and control to ensure.

The opportunities premium payment platforms unlock not only when reconciling and allocation premium but also from a financial data control, consolidation and audit perspective, can be transformative. When this is further combined with the new reporting that is unlocked and streamlined operations using features like workflows leads to a drastically enhanced and often very different operating model. This model, however, enables businesses to work in near real-time, enhance relationships and most importantly remain competitive.

Identifying and addressing inefficient processes

Investing in modern technology like automation is often the first step in streamlining operations and eliminating inefficient processes. The goal is to encourage program administrators to focus less on manual administrative tasks that are time-consuming and instead, focus on key business decision making to improve financial gain – automating manual processes does exactly that.

Likewise, the insurance industry is constantly evolving so the adoption of premium payment processing will be crucial in remaining competitive in a shifting market dynamic. With this in mind, legacy systems, once the backbone of insurance operations, must go. These systems are outdated and unable to meet the demands of a data-driven, regulated market, leading businesses to embrace digital transformation and no longer depend on inefficient processes.

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Business

Who’s Scared of Embedded Payments?

Source: Finance Derivative

Johannes Kolbeinsson, CEO at PAYSTRAX

Embedded payments have been swiftly integrated into the e-commerce ecosystem, showcasing their transformative potential in reshaping how we make transactions. There is a bright future for embedded payments, but we must emphasise the significant untapped potential within the space as it currently stands, as the user experience still isn’t quite seamless, and third-party payment processors still present a fraud risk to companies. 

A Rapidly Expanding Market

The growth of embedded payments is undeniable. Driven by the rise of digital wallets and one-click checkout systems, the global market for embedded finance as a whole is projected to grow from $92 billion to $228 billion between 2024 and 2028. Recent shifts in consumer behaviour, especially toward frictionless digital experiences, have been accelerating the adoption of these solutions across sectors. Embedded payments offer that seamless one system approach, not only quickly processing payments on app, but building a one app relationship with consumers that develops brand loyalty.

This trend directly mirrors the business strategies of the major players in the tech world. Companies such as Apple, with its mobile wallet and credit card ventures, and Shopify, combining e-commerce with embedded payments, have demonstrated that blending payments directly into platforms can drive user engagement and boost conversions. The logic is plain and simple: by keeping consumers within the app, businesses streamline the purchasing process, increasing the likelihood of finalising transactions, and building brand and customer loyalty.

The Embedded Payments Boom

Embedded payments have become the latest hot topic in fintech. In fact, just a few years ago, in 2020, embedded finance payments were generating around $16 billion in revenue. Looking ahead to next year, forecasts suggest that number will skyrocket to over $140 billion. The success of platforms like Uber with one-click payments and the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) models from companies like Klarna are clear indicators of this shift. Consumers increasingly seek ease and convenience, and embedded payments are meeting those demands head-on.

However, for all the excitement, embedded payments still face challenges in adoption. Fraud prevention, authentication, and user experience remain key barriers that need to be addressed on an industry wide level to truly deliver the seamless, instant payments these systems promise consumers.

Addressing the Friction

While the promise of embedded payments is enticing, friction remains. One of the most critical challenges for businesses adopting embedded payments is ensuring robust risk management. Creating an online experience that feels as secure as an in-store transaction should be a top priority, especially as financial fraud becomes more prevalent.

Currently, many companies are jumping into embedded payments without fully understanding the complexities involved. The lack of in-house expertise in building the necessary infrastructure across digital services, transaction processing, and enablement layers can lead to implementation issues and security vulnerabilities. Businesses need to conduct proper due diligence to avoid potential pitfalls, as hasty implementations can compromise both functionality and security.

User experience is another key factor in determining the success of embedded payments. Historically, we’ve seen how PayPal revolutionised online payments with its email-and-password system, setting a new standard. Embedded payments, while advanced, are still evolving to achieve a truly frictionless experience. Authentication processes frequently occur outside of the platform or app, and the range of payment options can be limited. To fully realise the potential of embedded payments, businesses must balance security, usability, and convenience.

Trust and Security Concerns

Security and trust are paramount when it comes to anything finance related, and these are areas where embedded payments must improve to gain widespread consumer adoption. With growing concerns about data privacy and the rise in online fraud (40% of all reported crime in the UK last year were fraud), it’s clear that consumers need reassurance before embracing embedded payments.

While embedded payment systems offer unparalleled convenience, their inherent vulnerabilities could make them a prime target for cybercriminals. The lack of standardisation and regulation in the sector, coupled with a general shortage of expertise that comes with a new industry, poses significant risks for users. Nevertheless, history suggests that consumers are willing to trust new technologies over time. Just a decade ago, saving card details online was met with hesitation; today, it’s commonplace. Similarly, as security concerns are addressed, embedded payments will likely gain traction as consumer trust grows.

The Path Ahead for Embedded Payments

Despite the array of payment methods available today, the potential for embedded payments to dominate the future of finance is undeniable. Their speed, ease, and ability to facilitate in-app purchases with a simple click make them an attractive option for both consumers and businesses.

Yet, for embedded payments to live up to their promise, key challenges remain. User experience and authentication are the primary obstacles. Truly embedded payments should enable users to complete transactions within the app, without being redirected elsewhere for authentication. As instant payments become the norm, any requirement to leave an app to verify a purchase could deter adoption. Addressing these issues will be critical to the future success of embedded payments as they continue to evolve and reshape the digital landscape.

In the coming years, as innovations like AI-driven fraud detection and biometric authentication become more integrated, the potential for embedded payments to achieve a truly seamless experience will grow. This could be the defining shift that cements embedded payments as the default mode of financial transactions in our increasingly digital world.

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Business

The need for speed: Why fintechs must supercharge background checks to stay competitive

Source: Finance Derivative

By Luke Shipley, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder at Zinc

In the fast-paced world of finance, and particularly where finance and technology intersect, hiring candidates with the right skills is crucial for staying ahead of the competition. For fintech firms, conducting fast yet thorough background checks is key to balancing regulatory compliance with the need for speed.

However, financial regulations in the UK demand rigorous oversight to safeguard consumer data, prevent fraud, and maintain financial stability. As part of these regulations, fintech companies must conduct thorough background checks to ensure new hires align with compliance standards, mitigating risks to both the company and its customers. These checks involve verifying critical information such as financial history, credit reports, criminal records and employment history, which are essential for determining the suitability of candidates handling sensitive financial data. These checks are both time-consuming and resource-intensive, slowing down the hiring process.

Fintech firms can sustain rapid growth and meet regulatory obligations without sacrificing operational efficiency by streamlining this crucial part of the hiring process with the right tools. This also enables HR teams to focus on creating a positive experience for new hires, rather than burdening them with additional administrative tasks. Implementing efficient systems that reduce these checks from weeks to days allows companies to swiftly onboard talent, maintain customer trust, and stay competitive.

Challenges of traditional background checks

Traditional background checks in the fintech industry are complex and time-consuming due to the stringent regulatory requirements that financial organisations must follow. Verifying candidates’ financial history, running credit reports, conducting Disclosure and Barring Service (DBS) checks, and confirming employment history for the past several years are all critical tasks. These checks are not only meticulous but also require coordination with external agencies, which often slows down the process.

Manual handling of these background checks can extend the hiring timeline by weeks or even months, creating operational inefficiencies for fintech companies that need to scale quickly in a competitive industry. Prolonged hiring cycles can also lead to delays in onboarding vital talent, putting added pressure on already stretched teams.

For HR departments, managing these extensive checks manually places a heavy administrative burden. The time spent gathering documentation, verifying information, and coordinating with third parties diverts HR professionals from focusing on more strategic initiatives, such as talent acquisition and improving the candidate experience. As a result, the manual process not only hinders recruitment efficiency but also affects the company’s ability to attract top talent in a timely manner.

Role of technology in streamlining background checks

Here, technology plays a crucial role as it revolutionises the background check process in fintech by reducing manual interventions and simplifying time-consuming tasks. Automated platform systems now handle complex steps like identity verification, credit checks, and employment history validations far more efficiently than traditional methods. These technologies not only speed up the process but also provide one centralised place for employee documentation and improve accuracy by reducing the risk of human error in verifying critical information.

Automation also allows fintech companies to complete thorough background checks in a fraction of the time, continuing to ensure global compliance without delaying the hiring process. HR teams are freed from the burden of manual data gathering by automating repetitive tasks and reminder emails so they can focus on higher-value activities, such as candidate engagement and talent strategy.

Moreover, integrating background check platforms with existing HR systems streamlines recruitment workflows. This integration ensures a seamless transfer of data, and provides real-time updates on the status of each candidate’s background check. The result is a faster, more efficient hiring process that allows fintech firms to onboard new employees quickly, creating a positive reflection of their brand at every stage of the onboarding process.

Improved candidate experience

Technology in recruitment not only benefits HR teams but also significantly enhances the candidate experience. Automated systems cut down lengthy waiting periods, helping candidates move through the hiring process more swiftly.

From digital applications to real-time status updates, candidates enjoy a seamless, transparent process, which minimises stress and uncertainty. This streamlined approach improves communication and ensures that candidates are informed at every stage of their check progress, fostering trust and keeping them engaged. Additionally, modern tools like AI-driven assessments or automated interview scheduling save time, allowing candidates to focus on showcasing their skills rather than dealing with logistical hassles. Fintech companies can improve their overall employer branding by providing a more efficient and organised hiring process, attracting top talent who appreciate a modern and tech-forward experience.

It is why speeding up background checks is crucial for fintech companies aiming to stay competitive. By leveraging modern technology, these companies can benefit from greater efficiency, regulatory adherence, and an enhanced candidate experience. Fintech firms should embrace tech-driven solutions to balance speed and regulatory requirements, ensuring a smooth, transparent, and efficient hiring process.

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