Business
The global stock markets will be volatile in 2023 – how can investors and fund managers navigate it?
Source: Finance Derivative
Kar Yong Ang, Financial Markets Analyst, OctaFX
It has been a dizzying year for the stock market, between global uncertainty, high inflation, and rate hikes. With inflation still uncomfortably high and more rate hikes on the horizon, the market could be in for a bumpy ride in 2023.
You are probably wondering, “What next?” This is a guessing game, at best. Any fund manager or investor who tells you they know what is going to happen is being disingenuous. But if there is one guaranteed constant you can count on in the stock market currently it is volatility. This volatility will bring opportunity to investors aiming to benefit from the twists and turns of stock market.
The volatility opportunity
Over the course of 2022, we have seen broad market indexes decline, and many primary sectors have reported negative returns during Q2–Q3 2022.
The fourth quarter of 2022 is looking to be a calmer quarter, but still filled with volatility and uncertainty.
We do not anticipate much change in market volatility over the next six months since the threats to economic growth remain the same as for this year– namely, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis in Europe, global inflation, and supply chain issues, as well as multiple climate disasters.
For fund managers and DIY traders, this presents a remarkable opportunity to make outsized returns, particularly those sophisticated using derivatives such as contracts-for-difference (CFDs) to benefit off the price movements of stocks, whichever direction they move.
Benefitting from the ups and downs
With traditional trading, traders are buying a stock in the hope that its price will rise later, enabling them to sell at a profit.
In contrast, when trading CFDs, traders can take advantage not only of rising, but also of falling market prices. This can be beneficial when trading in today’s highly volatile markets.
Trading in this way offers a chance to make money from falling markets, rather than having to hold onto investments long term until markets rebound. CFDs can also be traded on *leverage, which enables traders to boost their market exposure and trade bigger volumes for a small initial capital.
The 2023 outlook for the stock market?
The stock market could be set up for another rocky year in 2023 if initial earnings estimates are anything to go by. The biggest banks, including Bank of America, foresee 0% earnings per share growth for the S&P 500. If a recession hits, its expected EPS could fall by 11% on average.
Over the long-term, corporate earnings growth and stock prices have a direct relationship, so if earnings are not growing, there is a good chance that the stock prices will not either, at least until the outlook improves.
In a weak macroeconomic environment, the cyclical sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary are under a negative spotlight and tend to underperform the wider market in falling markets.
Conversely, we anticipate defensive and value stocks within the utilities, natural resources, and consumer staples sectors to be less volatiles in the low growth and higher rate environment.
In any case, diversifying your stocks across different geographies and sectors will decrease company-specific and systemic risks of your portfolio.
Enjoy the ride
We believe the current drivers of the global economy will persist into 2023. U.S. inflation is still uncomfortably high, and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will probably continue to increase interest rates in the first half of 2023. The U.S. bond market yield curve has inverted, signalling a probable recession. Thus, earnings growth will almost certainly slow and the bear market in the S&P 500 will likely persist in 2023.
Furthermore, there are additional geopolitical risks like the war in Ukraine and tensions around Taiwan, not to mention rising COVID cases in China, which might lead to nationwide lockdown and provoke a sharp drop in demand for many commodities.
The U.S. stock market index has already had its worst year in more than a decade. However, there are positive signs as well. Dramatic declines in valuations are often followed by a sharp reversal of the trend.
Indeed, if you take a long-term view, 2023 may provide an excellent buying opportunity. However, more volatility should be expected before the bottom is reached. Traders and fund managers should be ready for many up and down moves. Such an unstable environment offers great opportunities for shorter term traders as they can profit by being both on the short and on the long side of the trade.
End
*It is important to note that trading on leverage can come with increased risks. This means that a trader using leverage to multiply a trade by 10 also risks losing 10 times his or her initial outlay. To minimise losses, traders can make use of hedging, a strategy that involves offsetting one’s trades with opposite positions. For instance, a trader buying a particular share can also short a CFD with the same share as its underlying asset. If the share price falls, the loss is compensated by the amounts earned from the CFD.
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Business
Technology’s Role in Transforming Insurance: From AI to Cyber Risk
Source: Finance Derivative
Authored by Samiul Chowdhury, Principal Actuarial Consultant, RNA Analytics
The insurance industry is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by rapid advancements in technology. From property and casualty to life insurance, the role of digital solutions has never been more important. Today, it’s almost impossible to imagine a successful, compliant insurance business without technology at its core.
But how exactly is technology reshaping the insurance landscape? And what does it mean for the future of actuarial work, AI, and cyber risk? Let’s explore.
The Essential Role of Technology in Modern Insurance
Technology is the cornerstone of the successful modern insurance business – whether property, casualty or life. It’s no longer optional—it’s essential! Operating a successful and compliant insurance company today without the help of software solutions would be a real challenge. Whether it’s managing customer data, meeting regulatory demands, or assessing risk, technology is at the heart of everything modern insurers do.
In recent years, regulatory compliance has been a top priority for (re)insurers across the globe, with IFRS 17 probably the number one focus. The new accounting standards are highly complex, and their implementation has forced many insurers to rethink and redesign their entire approach to financial reporting and infrastructure. However, this challenge has also been a catalyst for technological innovation.
One of the most significant changes brought about by IFRS 17 is the integration of traditionally siloed such as functions such as actuarial, finance and accounting functions. This alignment gives insurers unprecedented insight into opportunities and risks, enabling them to make more informed decisions. Beyond compliance, accuracy and extensive flexibility, this integration offers insurers a chance to enhance accuracy, achieve greater flexibility, and gain a deeper understanding of their financial landscape.
How AI is Changing the Actuarial World
Much has been said aboutArtificial Intelligence (AI) and its potential to disrupt industries. In insurance, AI is already proving to be a game-changer, especially in actuarial work. With the right approach, AI holds great promise of making processes smoother and bringing faster, more accurate decision-making into play.
However, AI is not here to replace actuaries. Instead, it enhances actuaries’ roles by automating their routine tasks such as data pre-processing, model fitting, and report generation. This automation allows actuaries to focus on more strategic tasks, giving them a more central role within the organizations.
Meanwhile, AI modelling introduces new sources of uncertainty. Actuaries must understand the limitations and assumptions behind the AI models they are using. It’s important to ensure that these are fair, unbiased, and ethical —particularly when it comes to pricing and underwriting. This means actuaries will need to pick up new skills, especially in data science and programming languages like Python and R.
In other words, AI offers actuaries the chance to work more efficiently and strategically, but only if they are prepared to navigate the complexities it brings.
The Growing Challenge of Cyber Risk. How Do Insurers Keep Up?
Cyber risk has emerged as one of the most significant threats insurers face today. Cyber insurance is not the same as it was twenty years ago. The policies were relatively simpler, and insurers didn’t have as much data or experience to rely on. Today, they are more complex, reflecting the increased scale and sophistication of cyber threats.
As cyberattacks have increased, so has our ability to model and understand them. Insurers have gained more data over time, which has allowed them to get a better grip on the risks involved. However, here is the thing: technology evolves, and so do the threats. Whether it’s a data breach, ransomware attack, or even non-malicious technical failures like the recent CrowdStrike outage, the risks are more systemic and far-reaching than ever.
Looking ahead, as we enter the Web3 era where information becomes ever more interconnected and managed by semantic metadata, we’ll have a complete set of new vulnerabilities. Business models will shift, and with that, the risks insurers will need to cover. By 2044, cyber insurance policies will probably look quite different from what we see today.
Conclusion
The insurance industry is at a turning point, driven by the rapid adoption of technology and the increasing complexity of risks like cyber threats. To stay ahead of the curve, insurers need to embrace AI, data-driven decision-making processes, and advanced risk models.
Business
The EPC’s Verification of Payee rulebook: Five things banks need to consider
Source: Finance Derivative
Pratiksha Pathak, Head of Payments Services at RedCompass Labs, shares her insights on the Verification of Payee’s (VoP) impact and what it means for European payment service provers (PSPs).
Fraud is an ever-present threat in the payments landscape, and with the rise of instant payments, the risk has never been greater. While these rapid transactions offer unmatched convenience, they also pave the way for instant fraud, leaving financial institutions with minimal time to intercept suspicious activity.
In October, the European Payments Council (EPC) published the long-awaited Verification of Payee rulebook, which marked a major milestone in the SEPA Instant Payment Regulations (IPR) and a key effort to combat payments fraud.
In 2022 alone, fraudulent credit transfers, direct debits, card payments, cash withdrawals, and e-money transactions across the EEA reached a staggering €4.3 billion, with an additional €2.0 billion lost in just the first half of 2023.
The VoP rulebook aims to standardise how banks confirm payee account details, protecting consumers from fraudulent transactions. However, while the intentions are solid, the new regulations present several challenges that banks must address swiftly and efficiently.
- Tight deadlines leave no room for error
The deadlines are tight. Banks must have a VoP solution in place across all payment channels by 5th October 2025, which is just four days before the IPR comes into effect. Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter if a bank uses an existing domestic verification service since the rulebook standardises how account information is verified in payments across Europe.
This means that every bank will need to adapt or overhaul its systems to meet pan-European standards. Given the verification process will apply to both SEPA and SEPA Instant payments across all payment channels, it will be a big lift for banks.
The challenges are compounded by the rollout of the EPC Directory Service (EDS), which is the centralised database that underpins the scheme. The EDS won’t be ready for testing until late June 2025. This leaves only three months for banks to complete end-to-end testing and fully deploy their solutions.
Some aspects of VoP, such as APIs and channel infrastructure, can be built in advance, but banks won’t be able to conduct end-to-end testing until after the EDS is ready. For institutions grappling with legacy systems or more complex architectures, the timeline is daunting and leaves little to no room for error.
- The 5-second rule is a small change with a big impact
Another key change is the extended verification window. Banks now have five seconds, rather than three, to confirm payee account details across all channels.
Whilst this may seem generous, it is still a tight squeeze given the intricacies involved. This means that both the payment engine and all customer-facing channels—whether online, mobile, phone, or paper-based—must be highly available, fast, and scalable.
Ensuring a smooth customer experience, especially for non-digital transactions, will test banks’ technological limits. While mobile and online platforms might be better equipped, accommodating phone and bulk transactions introduces layers of complexity.
It may be more time than before, but the five-second verification window leaves little margin for error – never mind the one-second timeframe the EPC would prefer.
- Bulk payments are a logistical headache
One of the most complex aspects is VoP’s application to bulk-payment files, such as salary payouts. The rulebook demands that each individual payment in a file undergo verification, potentially creating a logistical nightmare.
Imagine a scenario where thousands of payments trigger a mix of ‘match’, ‘close match’, and ‘no match’ results. As a bank, how do you relay this information to your client within 5 seconds? Do you provide the notifications in a file? Through an app? A checklist?
Handling a flood of verification requests within seconds requires not only a robust infrastructure but also meticulous planning. Banks must devise sophisticated mechanisms to process and deliver results without disrupting the broader payment workflow to prevent operational chaos.
- Legacy systems will feel the pain
For many banks, the biggest challenge lies in integrating VoP into long-established SEPA payment systems because it requires modifications to processes that are already running smoothly.
Banks need to ensure that all their payment channels can incorporate VoP functionality without disrupting the current flow. Banks may need to upgrade or completely rework several parts, making the process complicated and costly.
Verifying payees at the beginning of a transaction requires changes to how these systems interact and handle data. Banks will also need to ensure that existing transactions continue without delays and errors, which will prove to be a big challenge for those with multiple existing payment channels.
- Navigating routing and verification is complex
The new EPC/European Directory Service (EDS) may bring operational challenges. Whilst the EDS serves as a directory, it doesn’t handle the actual routing or verification of VoP requests and responses. Most banks now need to develop their own routing and verification mechanisms (RVMs).
These RVMs will act as connection points for participants and banks must either integrate directly with the EDS or use an RVM to route VoP requests. However, using an RVM doesn’t absolve the responding PSP of its responsibilities under the scheme’s rules.
Banks face a significant challenge in setting up or partnering with an RVM to manage this new process, but finding an RVM supplier will be a good place to start.
The bottom line
The EPC’s VoP rulebook is a decisive step forward in improving payment security across Europe, but it also introduces significant challenges for banks.
As banks start to prepare for this overhaul, balancing compliance with operational efficiency will be key to protecting customers whilst maintaining a seamless payment experience.
European banks have their work cut out for them. The demands of implementing VoP are high, and the timeline is short. But with the right expertise and strategic planning, it can be done.
Business
How eCash and digital wallets will diversify the payments landscape in 2025
Source: Finance Derivative
Written by Fernando Costa-Cabral, SVP Branded Payments, and Ishan Vaid, VP Core Features, at Paysafe.
Throughout 2025, we’ll see two seemingly opposing payment methods – eCash and digital wallets – further reshaping how consumers manage their money. While cash – and future access to it – is still critically important for consumers, digital payments are undergoing a huge transformation.
eCash will continue to bridge the digital divide by ensuring consumers can use physical currency to buy goods and services online. As a result, businesses will leverage it as a democratizing force to promote financial inclusion and serve diverse consumer segments.
Digital wallets also have a major role to play in the evolving payments landscape, with 32% of consumers reporting to have increased their use of wallets in 2024. A notable development is the rise of brand-owned wallets, as businesses outside the financial services sector seek to establish closed-loop ecosystems to control and enhance the customer experience.
With a view to the year ahead, here is how eCash and digital wallets will evolve throughout 2025.
Bridging the digital divide with eCash
Even in today’s digital world, cash plays a vital role in consumer finances. Recent research from Paysafe has revealed that 63% of consumers harbor concerns about losing access to cash, while 44% want the option to buy items online and pay in cash at a brick-and-mortar store.
This preference stems from the unique advantages of cash: it provides tangible financial security, enables precise spending control, and helps users avoid the often-hidden costs commonly associated with credit-based payments. Across geographies, cash remains essential for reducing financial anxiety and ensuring reliable transactions.
Despite its enduring importance, cash has largely remained on the sidelines of the recent payment revolution. Traditional cash-based operations continue to be cumbersome and time-consuming – whether it’s depositing physical money into a bank account, coordinating international cash transfers, or attempting to set up installment payments. Furthermore, the retail sector has generally overlooked cash users when developing modern consumer incentives such as cashback programs, buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) schemes, or subscription-based services, creating a noticeable gap in the market.
That is all now changing. This year, eCash will solidify its position as the right solution to bridge this divide between physical currency and our increasingly digital economy – making cash more relevant and accessible in the modern world. In the year ahead, eCash’s progression will materialize through three main developments: enhanced security measures, value-added features, and a significantly improved user experience. With these improvements, eCash can transform traditional cash into a simple and secure payment method with the same core benefits that make cash valuable to many people.
Digital wallets will diversify the payments landscape
In a similar vein to eCash, digital wallets are diversifying the payments landscape, with non-financial brands increasingly venturing into the territory once dominated by incumbent financial service providers. By acquiring their own digital wallet solutions, these brands are reducing their dependence on external financial institutions and enhancing the payment experience.
The trend toward brand-owned wallets has already gained traction in Asian markets, with e-wallets now being offered by ride-hailing apps and e-commerce platforms – and we anticipate a significant uptake in markets like the UK over the coming year. Specifically, retail chains, gaming platforms, and logistics companies are all exploring how digital wallets can streamline their payment processes, strengthen customer loyalty, and deliver greater control over the user experience.
There’s particularly strong momentum building around white-label wallet solutions, which provide businesses with a sophisticated approach to payment integration. These solutions enable brands to incorporate advanced wallet functionalities directly into their existing platforms while maintaining complete control over their user interface and experience. This development aligns with a broader strategic shift we’ve observed across various sectors – from gaming and retail to mobility services – where brands increasingly want a closed-loop ecosystem that they manage.
In 2025, we can anticipate four key evolutionary trends in the digital wallet space. First, we will see even more seamless integration of wallet functionality into non-financial platforms, allowing users to complete transactions without leaving their preferred brand’s ecosystem. Second, there will be significant advances in real-time currency conversion capabilities and multi-currency wallet features, catering to the growing demands of global commerce and international travel. Third, we can expect enhanced instant settlement capabilities, supported by faster payment rails that align with contemporary consumer expectations for immediate transaction processing and gratification. Finally, there will be an increased emphasis on sustainability, with digital wallets incorporating eco-friendly features such as carbon footprint tracking to meet the growing consumer demand for environmentally responsible financial services.
While these two technologies and their respective journeys aren’t necessarily joined at the hip, as 2025 unfolds both eCash and digital wallets will help to create a more accessible and customer-centric financial system. This evolution isn’t about choosing between cash and digital – it’s about seamlessly bridging both worlds, giving consumers and brands greater control over how they pay and get paid.