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FINANCIAL MARKETS IN 2022: INFLATION, ENERGY PRICES, AND THE CONTRASTING PERFORMANCE OF STOCKS

Source: Finance Derivative

Bob Jenkins, Head of Research, Refinitiv Lipper

Anyone hoping for a reprieve from the chaos and uncertainty of the last couple of years is likely to be disappointed. The pandemic will continue to have an impact on global economies, both directly (such as ongoing lockdowns and restrictions to combat the disease) and the exhaust effects we’ve seen in areas such as the production of goods, supply chain challenges, labour shortages and rising energy prices.

At the same time, the digital disruption of the financial world continues apace, with assets once overhyped becoming increasingly mainstream.

To make specific predictions in such an environment might seem like a fool’s errand, yet it is possible to discern some themes that will shape the course of financial markets in the coming year.

  1. Global inflation gets stubborn: Inflation is not transitory, and we are seeing a foundation for higher prices being put in place thanks to the supply chain and labour issues previously mentioned. In major developed markets, I think we’ll see stubborn inflation regardless of whether Covid remains a pandemic or begins to enter an endemic phase. The situation is slightly more positive in the US; while inflation will remain at a 3.5-4.5% range, a reduction in supply chain bottlenecks, increasing labour force and improved unemployment rates will serve to reduce the impact of primary inflation forces. We should bear in mind that households are estimated to have around $2 trillion in savings, which will maintain consumption levels and keep up the pressure on labour and supply chains.
  2. Rates will rise: Rates are likely to rise, with discussions in several major economies indicating a tapered end to the period of low rates we’ve seen since the 2008 financial crisis. This will probably be achieved in fits and starts as central banks navigate virus outbreaks and any resulting economic shocks. For instance, both the Fed and the Bank of England have indicated there will be hikes, but it is likely that they will rely on tapering at first to slow stimulus while also trying to navigate sentiment swings and volatility arising from waves of infections and/or new variants.
  3. China to lead economic growth, but not by much: China’s growth is likely to be around the 4-5% mark, with the US just slightly behind at 3.5-4%, off its 6% pace from the first part of 2021. The European Union and United Kingdom will likely trail the US, even if they have been exhibiting similar economic issues, while emerging markets could be hit by a combination of the Fed tightening up and challenges dealing with Omicron and other COVID waves.
  4. Higher energy prices are here to stay: Multiple forces will provide support to higher energy prices: supply chain issues, political posturing, demand for heating/cooling due to climate change, but Covid will occasionally step in to disrupt and counteract these forces. Even carbon neutral efforts could cause overall energy prices to rise in the near term as energy producers shift to renewables, with many of these alternative sources remaining expensive. Oil will stay in the $70-$80 range, with the occasional dip towards $60 as intermittent Covid concerns influence energy consumption in the travel sector.
  5. Underperforming stocks with a positive finish: In general, slower growth and lower rates help Growth and Tech stocks while faster growth and higher rates benefit Value and Cyclicals and I believe the economy will tend to lean towards the latter scenario. That said, growth and value leadership will change hands throughout the course of the year as the economy reacts to Covid waves and switches between lockdown and reopening. I suspect Value and Cyclicals will outperform Growth and Tech at the margin, but the dominate capitalization size of the latter two will pull down overall stock market returns. Of course, as with consumers, there is a lot of money being held back at the moment. Businesses have significant cash reserves and self-directed traders continue to shovel money into markets, which, when combined, can help buoy stocks.
  6. Flattening the bond yield curve: I think we will see some retrenchment as a result of rising rate programs by central banks that will largely result in negative to flat returns across core fixed income. Any selling in longer term bonds in reaction to either economic or central bank activity will be mostly offset by buying due to the global desire for yield, thus keeping a lid on longer term rates. Rising short term rates in this environment will serve to flatten the yield curve. High yield bonds could provide for pockets of opportunity as they are potentially tied to cyclical areas of the economy that could show leadership.
  7. The contrasting futures of ESG and digital assets: In the coming year I think we’ll see digital and tokenized assets become almost as popular as Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). However, whereas ESG is a permanent shift that will eventually encompass the evaluation of all mutual funds, digital currencies still look a little more niche. We could well see them proliferate over the next few years, potentially even becoming a new quasi-asset class, but they will remain a satellite allocation in risk tolerant portfolio strategies. They are unlikely to achieve the status of being included in mainstream portfolios such as defined contribution retirement plans where assets can flow in large, consistent amounts – unlike ESGs, which could well reach that point in the coming years.
  8. A more defined ESG: It is looking increasingly likely that ESG funds will begin to splinter into more thematic offerings as investors eschew the combined “ESG” mandates in favour of more targeted strategies that enable them to better assess stocks aligned with fund objectives. This will also help avoid those securities jumping on the ESG bandwagon.
  9. The continued rise of the Big Five: Of course, in an era of unpredictability, there are always going to be trends or themes that run counter to accepted wisdom. Despite the aforementioned attempts of central banks to raise rates, the Big Five stocks (Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Nvidia) will continue to show leaderships. While technically falling into the camp of richly valued Growth, these stocks have begun to also acquire a status as a safe haven, with generally strong earnings demonstrating a consistency and dependability that attracts investors. They also populate immense amounts of passive and retirement plan assets under management, equating to steady flows into them in almost any economic environment.

All this plays out against a backdrop of our changing stance on COVID. While there are some commonalities in how different regions tackle the pandemic, the continued uneven nature of our global responses makes it hard to determine what state we will be in this time next year. If most major economies can move to an endemic setting, then we should have the tools in place to make ‘living with Covid’ a reality. However, the continued emergence of other variants will cause volatility, and with it a predictable jostling of market leadership. Perhaps the only predictions anyone can truly make is that life will continue to be unpredictable for some time to come.

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Business

Why email marketing remains one of the best forms of digital marketing

Crafting a strong email marketing strategy involves a real balance between creativity and making data-driven decisions, which, is just one of the roles undertaken by marketing and data company Go Live Data on behalf of its many clients.

Guiding some of the biggest corporates in the UK including Amazon Business, AxA and Premierline Business Insurance, Adam Herbert, CEO of Go Live Data, advises on the key components to a successful email campaign and why as one of the most effective marketing tools available, email still plays a crucial role in digital marketing:

Forming a direct means of communication, emails provides a and two-way access between businesses and their customers. And it may sound obvious to say, but unlike social media or other digital channels, every email allows marketers to reach their audience straight into their inbox, and this is where individuals are most likely to engage with the content they’re being shown.

Offering a high return on investment,  emails consistently deliver one of the highest ROI’s compared to other forms of digital marketing such as PPC and advertising. According to studies, the average is around £40 for every £1 spent, which is huge; and due to the low cost of email, its ability to drive conversions and to retain customers.

What’s more, with email segmentation and many personalisation techniques available, marketers can tailor their messages to specific groups of their audience, based on demographics, their behaviours, interests, and purchase history making them not only very targeted, but personalised too. The key is to deliver relevant content to subscribers, which means marketers can increase engagement, conversions, as well as customer satisfaction.

There are specific platforms which allow for automation, giving marketers the ability to set up automated workflows triggered by user actions and also means that marketers can deliver timely and relevant messages at scale, by nurturing leads, as an effective way to guide customers efficiently through the sales funnel.

Emails are also an excellent way to build customer relationships, by nurturing over time. By consistently delivering valuable content, exclusive offers, and personalised recommendations, businesses can strengthen the ‘bond’ with their audiences and increase brand loyalty. Email provides a means of two-way communication, which allows customers to send in their feedback, to ask any questions they may have and to  engage with a brand directly.

They are also a great way to drive traffic to your website, blog and social media, or any other digital channels connected to your business. By including attractive or compelling calls-to-action (CTAs) and relevant content, you can encourage subscribers to take action such as making a purchase, signing up for a webinar, or downloading a resource, which in turn will drive conversions and revenue for your business.

Email platforms offer substantial analytics and reporting functions that enable marketers to track the performance of their campaigns in real-time. Monitoring of key metrics such as open rates, click-through rates, conversion rates, and revenue generated, allows marketers to measure the effectiveness of their campaigns and of course make data-driven decisions to optimise and plan future activities.

Overall, emails are an integral component of a digital marketing and by leveraging email effectively, businesses can engage their audience, nurture leads, drive sales, and ultimately grow their businesses.

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Business

Conflicting with compliance: How the finance sector is struggling to implement GenAI

By James Sherlow, Systems Engineering Director, EMEA, for Cequence Security

GenerativeAI has multiple applications in the finance sector from product development to customer relations to marketing and sales. In fact, McKinsey estimates that GenAI has the potential to improve operating profits in the finance sector by between 9-15% and in the banking sector, productivity gains could be between 3-5% of annual revenues. It suggests AI tools could be used to boost customer liaison with AI integrated through APIs to give real-time recommendations either autonomously or via CSRs, to inform decision making and expedite day-to-day tasks for employees, and to decrease risk by monitoring for fraud or elevated instances of risk.

However, McKinsey also warns of inhibitors to adoption in the sector. These include the level of regulation applicable to different processes, which is fairly low with respect to customer relations but high for credit risk scoring, for example, and the data used, some of is in the public domain but some of which comprises personally identifiable information (PII) which is highly sensitive. If these issues can be overcome, the analyst estimates GenAI could more than double the application of expertise to decision making, planning and creative tasks from 25% without to 56%.

Hamstrung by regulations

Clearly the business use cases are there but unlike other sectors, finance is currently being hamstrung by regulations that have yet to catch up with the AI revolution. Unlike in the EU which approved the AI Act in March, the UK has no plans to regulate the technology. Instead, it intends to promote guidelines. The UK Financial Authorities comprising the Bank of England, PRA, and FCA have been canvassing the market on what these should look like since October 2022, publishing the results (FS2/23 – AI and Machine Learning) a year later which showed a strong demand for harmonisation with the likes of the AI Act as well as NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework.

Right now, this means financial providers find themselves in regulatory limbo. If we look at cyber security, for instance, firms are being presented with GenAI-enabled solutions that can assist them with incident detection and response but they’re not able to utilise that functionality because it contravenes compliance requirements. Decision-making processes are a key example as these must be made by a human, tracked and audited and, while the decision-making capabilities of GenAI may be on a par, accountability in remains a grey area. Consequently, many firms are erring on the side of caution and are choosing to deactivate AI functionality within their security solutions.

In fact, a recent EY report found one in five financial services leaders did not think their organisation was well-positioned to take advantage of the potential benefits. Much will depend on how easily the technology can be integrated into existing frameworks, although the GenAI and the Banking on AI: Financial Services Harnesses Generative AI for Security and Service report cautions this may take three to five years. That’s a long time in the world of GenAI, which has already come a long way since it burst on to the market 18 months ago.

Malicious AI

The danger is that while the sector drags its heels, threat actors will show no such qualms and will be quick to capitalise on the technology to launch attacks. FS2/23 makes the point that GenAI could see an increase in money laundering and fraud through the use of deep fakes, for instance, and sophisticated phishing campaigns. We’re still in the learning phase but as the months tick by the expectation is that we can expect to see high-volume self-learning attacks by the end of the year. These will be on an unprecedented scale because GenAI will lower the technological barrier to entry, enabling new threat actors to enter the fray.

Simply blocking attacks will no longer be a sufficient form of defence because GenAI will quickly regroup or pivot the attack automatically without the need to employ additional resource. If we look at how APIs, which are intrinsic to customer services and open banking for instance, are currently protected, the emphasis has been on detection and blocking but going forward we can expect deceptive response to play a far greater role. This frustrates and exhausts the resources of the attacker, making the attacks cost-prohibitive to sustain.

So how should the sector look to embrace AI given the current state of regulatory flux? As with any digital transformation project, there needs to be oversight of how AI will be used within the business, with a working group tasked to develop an AI framework. In addition to NIST, there are a number of security standards that can help here such as ISO 22989, ISO 23053, ISO 23984 and ISO 42001 and the oversight framework set out in DORA (Digital Operational Resilience Act) for third party providers. The framework should encompass the tools the firm has with AI functionality, their possible application in terms of use cases, and the risks associated with these, as well as how it will mitigate any areas of high risk.

Taking a proactive approach makes far more sense than suspending the use of AI which effectively places firms at the mercy of adversaries who will be quick to take advantage of the technology. These are tumultuous times and we can certainly expect AI to rewrite the rulebook when it comes to attack and defence. But firms must get to grips with how they can integrate the technology rather than electing to switch it off and continue as usual.

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Business

Recognising the value of protecting intellectual property early builds strong foundation for innovators

Innovation Manager at InnoScot Health, Fiona Schaefer analyses an essential facet of developing ideas into innovations

Helping the NHS to innovate remains a key priority during this period of recovery and reform. Even within the current cash-strapped climate, there is the opportunity to maximise the first-hand experience of the healthcare workforce and its knowledge of where new ideas are needed most.

Entrepreneurial-minded, creative staff from any discipline or activity are often best placed to recognise areas for improvement – the reason why a significant number of solutions come from, and are best developed with, health and social care staff.

NHS Scotland is a powerful driver of innovation, but to truly harness the opportunities which new ideas offer for development and commercialisation, the knowledge and intellectual property (IP) underpinning them needs to be protected. That vital know-how and other intangible assets – holding appropriate contracts for example – are key from an early stage.

Medical devices can take years to develop and gain regulatory approval, so from the outset of an idea’s development – and before revenue is generated – filing for IP protection and having confidentiality agreements in place are ways to start creating valuable assets. This is especially important when applying for patent protection because that option is only available when ideas have not been discussed or presented to external parties prior to application.

Without taking that critical initial step to protect IP, anyone – without your permission – could copy the idea, so anything of worth should be protected as soon as possible, making for a clear competitive advantage and ownership in the same sense as possessing physical property.

The common theme is that to be successful – and ultimately support the commercialisation of ideas that will improve patient care and outcomes – the idea must be novel, better, quicker, or more efficient than existing options. Furthermore, to turn it into a sound proposition worth investing in, it must also be technically and financially feasible. It isn’t enough to just be new and novel – the best innovations offer tangible benefits to patient outcomes and staff working practices.

Of course, even more so in the current climate of financial constraints, the key question of ‘Who will pay for your new product or service?’ needs to be considered up front as well.

Whilst development of a strong IP portfolio requires investment and dedicated expertise, when done well and at the appropriate time, then it is resource well spent, offering a level of security whilst developing an asset which can be built upon and traded. There are various ways commercialisation can progress and whilst not all efforts will be successful, intellectual property is an asset which can be licensed or sold to others offering a range of opportunities to secure a good return.

In my experience, however, many organisations including the NHS are still missing the opportunity to recognise and protect their knowledge assets and intellectual property early in the innovation pathway. This is partly due to lack of understanding – sometimes one aspect is carefully protected, whilst another is entirely neglected. In other cases, the desire to accelerate to the next stage of product development means such important foundational steps are not given the attention required for long-term success.

Good IP management goes beyond formally protecting the knowledge assets associated with a project, e.g. by patenting or design registration, however. When considered with other intangible assets such as access to datasets, clinical trial results, standard operating procedures, quality management systems, and regulatory approvals, it is the combination which will be key to success.

Early securing of IP protection or recognition of IP rights in a collaboration agreement, demonstrates foresight and business acumen. Later on, it can significantly boost negotiating power with a licensing partner or build investor confidence.

Conversely, omissions in IP protection or suitable contracts can be damaging, potentially derailing years of product development and exposing organisations to legal challenges and other risks. Failing to protect a promising idea can also mean commercial opportunities are missed, thus leading to your IP being undervalued.

Ideas are evaluated by formal NHS Scotland partner InnoScot Health in the same way whether they are big or small, a product, service, or new, innovative approach to a care pathway.

We encourage and enable all 160,000 NHS Scotland staff, regardless of role or location, to come forward with their ideas, giving them the advice and support they need to maximise their potential benefits.

Protecting the IP rights of the health service is one of the cornerstones of InnoScot Health’s service offering. In fact, to date we have protected over 255 NHS Scotland innovations. Recently these have included design registration and trademarks for the SARUS® hood and trademarks for SCRAM®, building and protecting a recognised range of bags with innovative, intuitive layouts. Spin outs such as Aurum Biosciences meanwhile have patents underpinning their novel therapeutics and diagnostics.

We assist in managing this IP to ensure a return on investment for the health service. Any revenue generated from commercialising ideas and innovations from healthcare professionals is shared with the innovators and the health board through our agreements with them and the revenue sharing scheme detailed in health board IP and innovation policies.

Fundamentally, we believe that it is vital to harness the value of expertise and creativity of staff with a well-considered approach to protecting IP and knowledge input to projects from the start.

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