Business
FINANCIAL MARKETS IN 2022: INFLATION, ENERGY PRICES, AND THE CONTRASTING PERFORMANCE OF STOCKS
Source: Finance Derivative
Bob Jenkins, Head of Research, Refinitiv Lipper
Anyone hoping for a reprieve from the chaos and uncertainty of the last couple of years is likely to be disappointed. The pandemic will continue to have an impact on global economies, both directly (such as ongoing lockdowns and restrictions to combat the disease) and the exhaust effects we’ve seen in areas such as the production of goods, supply chain challenges, labour shortages and rising energy prices.
At the same time, the digital disruption of the financial world continues apace, with assets once overhyped becoming increasingly mainstream.
To make specific predictions in such an environment might seem like a fool’s errand, yet it is possible to discern some themes that will shape the course of financial markets in the coming year.
- Global inflation gets stubborn: Inflation is not transitory, and we are seeing a foundation for higher prices being put in place thanks to the supply chain and labour issues previously mentioned. In major developed markets, I think we’ll see stubborn inflation regardless of whether Covid remains a pandemic or begins to enter an endemic phase. The situation is slightly more positive in the US; while inflation will remain at a 3.5-4.5% range, a reduction in supply chain bottlenecks, increasing labour force and improved unemployment rates will serve to reduce the impact of primary inflation forces. We should bear in mind that households are estimated to have around $2 trillion in savings, which will maintain consumption levels and keep up the pressure on labour and supply chains.
- Rates will rise: Rates are likely to rise, with discussions in several major economies indicating a tapered end to the period of low rates we’ve seen since the 2008 financial crisis. This will probably be achieved in fits and starts as central banks navigate virus outbreaks and any resulting economic shocks. For instance, both the Fed and the Bank of England have indicated there will be hikes, but it is likely that they will rely on tapering at first to slow stimulus while also trying to navigate sentiment swings and volatility arising from waves of infections and/or new variants.
- China to lead economic growth, but not by much: China’s growth is likely to be around the 4-5% mark, with the US just slightly behind at 3.5-4%, off its 6% pace from the first part of 2021. The European Union and United Kingdom will likely trail the US, even if they have been exhibiting similar economic issues, while emerging markets could be hit by a combination of the Fed tightening up and challenges dealing with Omicron and other COVID waves.
- Higher energy prices are here to stay: Multiple forces will provide support to higher energy prices: supply chain issues, political posturing, demand for heating/cooling due to climate change, but Covid will occasionally step in to disrupt and counteract these forces. Even carbon neutral efforts could cause overall energy prices to rise in the near term as energy producers shift to renewables, with many of these alternative sources remaining expensive. Oil will stay in the $70-$80 range, with the occasional dip towards $60 as intermittent Covid concerns influence energy consumption in the travel sector.
- Underperforming stocks with a positive finish: In general, slower growth and lower rates help Growth and Tech stocks while faster growth and higher rates benefit Value and Cyclicals and I believe the economy will tend to lean towards the latter scenario. That said, growth and value leadership will change hands throughout the course of the year as the economy reacts to Covid waves and switches between lockdown and reopening. I suspect Value and Cyclicals will outperform Growth and Tech at the margin, but the dominate capitalization size of the latter two will pull down overall stock market returns. Of course, as with consumers, there is a lot of money being held back at the moment. Businesses have significant cash reserves and self-directed traders continue to shovel money into markets, which, when combined, can help buoy stocks.
- Flattening the bond yield curve: I think we will see some retrenchment as a result of rising rate programs by central banks that will largely result in negative to flat returns across core fixed income. Any selling in longer term bonds in reaction to either economic or central bank activity will be mostly offset by buying due to the global desire for yield, thus keeping a lid on longer term rates. Rising short term rates in this environment will serve to flatten the yield curve. High yield bonds could provide for pockets of opportunity as they are potentially tied to cyclical areas of the economy that could show leadership.
- The contrasting futures of ESG and digital assets: In the coming year I think we’ll see digital and tokenized assets become almost as popular as Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). However, whereas ESG is a permanent shift that will eventually encompass the evaluation of all mutual funds, digital currencies still look a little more niche. We could well see them proliferate over the next few years, potentially even becoming a new quasi-asset class, but they will remain a satellite allocation in risk tolerant portfolio strategies. They are unlikely to achieve the status of being included in mainstream portfolios such as defined contribution retirement plans where assets can flow in large, consistent amounts – unlike ESGs, which could well reach that point in the coming years.
- A more defined ESG: It is looking increasingly likely that ESG funds will begin to splinter into more thematic offerings as investors eschew the combined “ESG” mandates in favour of more targeted strategies that enable them to better assess stocks aligned with fund objectives. This will also help avoid those securities jumping on the ESG bandwagon.
- The continued rise of the Big Five: Of course, in an era of unpredictability, there are always going to be trends or themes that run counter to accepted wisdom. Despite the aforementioned attempts of central banks to raise rates, the Big Five stocks (Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Nvidia) will continue to show leaderships. While technically falling into the camp of richly valued Growth, these stocks have begun to also acquire a status as a safe haven, with generally strong earnings demonstrating a consistency and dependability that attracts investors. They also populate immense amounts of passive and retirement plan assets under management, equating to steady flows into them in almost any economic environment.
All this plays out against a backdrop of our changing stance on COVID. While there are some commonalities in how different regions tackle the pandemic, the continued uneven nature of our global responses makes it hard to determine what state we will be in this time next year. If most major economies can move to an endemic setting, then we should have the tools in place to make ‘living with Covid’ a reality. However, the continued emergence of other variants will cause volatility, and with it a predictable jostling of market leadership. Perhaps the only predictions anyone can truly make is that life will continue to be unpredictable for some time to come.
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Business
PSD3 and the Real-Time Fraud Imperative: What the Regulation Actually Demands of Financial Infrastructure
Baiba Miezere, Group Product Development Director at Eastnets
The payments industry has spent years treating fraud prevention as a detection problem. PSD3 reframes it as an infrastructure problem, and that distinction matters enormously for how institutions should now be thinking about their technology stack.
The Regulatory Signal Worth Reading Carefully
PSD3 is frequently discussed in terms of its compliance burden: stronger authentication, expanded liability, tighter rules around authorised push payment fraud. But the more important signal is structural. By increasing liability for fraud losses and accelerating the shift toward instant payment rails, the regulation is effectively forcing fraud prevention out of the back office and into the transaction execution path itself. While PSD was concentrating more on cards, pull payments, reversible transactions, PSD3 addresses rapidly growing pain-point in financial market: instant payments, irreversible push payments, open banking Account-to-account payments, real time fraud.
This is a meaningful change. For most institutions, fraud review has historically happened after the fact, a monitoring function that flags anomalies, investigates cases, and seeks recovery. That model was always imperfect, but it was manageable when payment cycles gave you hours or days. Instant payments collapse that window to seconds. Once funds move, recovery options are limited. The liquidation point, where fraudsters convert access into irreversible transfers, now happens faster than most legacy fraud systems can respond. Fraud methods have also rapidly evolved: social engineering scams, synthetic identities, account takeovers, authorised push payment fraud – all requiring shift from traditional post-transaction rule-based monitoring to real-time cross-payment channels detection, combined with behavioural biometrics and artificial intelligence layer.
PSD3 doesn’t just tighten rules. It implicitly requires a different architecture, different tooling.
Why Behavioural Intelligence Is Now Central, Not Optional
The fraud typologies that PSD3 is most focused on, particularly APP fraud and account takeover, share a common characteristic: they’re hard to catch at the transaction level alone. A payment instruction may look entirely legitimate in isolation. The anomaly only becomes visible when you layer in behavioural context: Is this consistent with how this customer normally behaves? Is the session access pattern unusual? Is the same device and behavioural pattern spotted across other accounts and payment methods? Has the beneficiary relationship changed recently?
This shift explains why the industry has been moving toward a more integrated approach to fraud prevention. To comply with PSD3 and evolving fraud, institutions shall combine entity-level risk profiling, session-level intelligence, and transaction-level risk scoring to create a fuller view of risk before a payment is executed.
The challenge is that, in most institutions, these capabilities remain siloed. Behavioural analytics may sit in a separate system or be missing altogether, while transaction monitoring is split across channels, with one solution for cards and another for wire transfers. This often leaves instant payments, account-to-account payments, crypto payments, and buy-now-pay-later flows insufficiently covered, especially when detection and decisioning must happen within milliseconds.
The result is a fragmented control environment, with no unified decision point that brings all relevant signals together before a payment is released.
The gap between these layers is where fraud increasingly lives. Schemes evolve precisely to exploit the seams between detection systems. Static rules, however sophisticated, are inherently reactive, they catch what’s already been seen. The more durable approach combines rules-based detection for known patterns with unsupervised machine learning that identifies deviations from normal behaviour without requiring prior fraud examples. This handles both the known unknowns and the genuinely novel.
The Swift Dimension That Often Gets Overlooked
Much of the conversation around PSD3 and instant payments focuses on domestic retail rails, which makes sense given where consumer fraud volumes are concentrated. But high-value cross-border payments represent a distinct and underserved risk surface.
Swift traffic sits largely outside the scope of consumer-focused fraud tools. Yet correspondent banking flows carry significant value, and the attack vectors, compromised operator credentials, fraudulent payment instructions, manipulation of debit confirmations, are well-documented. The ability to monitor Swift messages at multiple interception points, cross-reference MT900 confirmations against MT103 instructions, and, critically, issue stop-and-recall instructions via the GPI tracker for payments already in-network, meaningfully extends the intervention window beyond what’s possible on domestic rails.
Very few fraud prevention architectures address this channel natively alongside retail payments. That gap deserves more attention as institutions think about end-to-end coverage.
From Compliance Burden to Architecture Decision
The institutions that will navigate PSD3 most effectively aren’t those that treat it as a compliance checkbox. They’re the ones that use the regulatory moment to reassess their fraud prevention architecture more fundamentally, asking not just “what do we need to do to comply?” but “what does a genuinely real-time, multi-channel fraud prevention capability actually look like, and do we have it?”
That question tends to surface uncomfortable answers. Fragmented point solutions. Offline analysis loops. Gaps in channel coverage. Detection capabilities that operate after execution rather than within it. Manual fraud investigation processes. Rapidly growing fraud volumes that institutions are expected to manage without proportionally increasing investigator teams and operational costs.
The regulation provides the mandate. The harder work is architectural: building or acquiring a unified control layer that sits within the payment workflow, combines behavioural and transactional signals, covers the full range of payment rails, and makes preventive decisions in real time rather than purely detective ones after the fact. Done well, this approach can strengthen detection, improve the customer experience, reduce operational costs, and significantly increase the effectiveness and productivity of fraud investigators.
That’s not a product category. It’s an infrastructure requirement. And PSD3 has just made it non-negotiable.
Business
The compliance cost trap and why efficiency must be the next frontier
Hassan Zebdeh, Financial Crime and Payment Advisor at Eastnets, outlines how banks can achieve stronger compliance outcomes by embracing more efficient, connected ways of working.
Compliance has become one of the most resource-intensive functions inside modern banks. Year after year, institutions invest more people, more technology and more time into meeting expanding regulatory expectations, yet many find themselves no closer to achieving meaningful reductions in risk. Or cost.
At the same time, financial crime is evolving daily, payments are moving in real time and regulators are increasingly focused on outcomes rather than process. While effort may increase, effectiveness doesn’t always follow suit. The systems and processes that once supported compliance in a pre-AI age are now being stretched to their limits, revealing a widening gap between what institutions put in and what they get back.
This growing imbalance raises a critical question for the industry: how financially sustainable is the current approach to compliance, and what needs to change if banks are to keep pace with risk and regulation?
The growing strain on compliance
Regulatory compliance can now account for more than 13% of operating costs, yet many banks continue to struggle with the same operational challenges. For most, rising spend has become the default setting for keeping up with regulatory obligations, rather than a reliable way to improve how risk is managed in practice.
Part of the challenge lies in how compliance has evolved. In recent years alone, banks have had to absorb a wave of new and evolving requirements – from the EU’s AML Package and DORA’s operational obligations to global FATCA/CRS reporting deadlines and many other regulations globally. The response to these changes has often involved layering new controls, systems and processes onto existing ones, adding complexity without fundamentally rethinking how compliance has changed.
The result is an environment that’s increasingly fragmented and difficult to scale. Compliance teams are expected to deliver faster detection, clearer auditability and stronger risk differentiation, while still relying on operating systems shaped by outdated processes and disconnected data. And yet, a single alert can take anywhere up to 22 hours to action – while some instant payments schemes require decisions in seconds, other nations still operate within minutes or longer. Sanctions lists are also changing, with the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposing sanctions on [https://”/]over 1,300 individuals and entities in 2025 alone, with this likely to double in 2026. Banks are having to manage risk continuously, even as they attempt to modernise operations that were never designed for today’s pace, landscape or scale.
Making matters harder, many firms are struggling to find and retain professionals with the right mix of legal, technical and operational expertise to work on these older platforms too. Experienced professionals are retiring en-masse, while nearly half of the new entrants lack the right experience needed to step into these roles effectively. Then again, why would the modern workforce want to work on outdated systems when they can choose new, more agile players within the industry?
Taken together, this all culminates into a costly endeavour. There is little being done on a broader scale to address the underlying mismatch between rising complexity and operational capacity. Therefore, to keep pace with risk and regulation, we need an entirely different approach; one that focuses more on how compliance is designed, connected and executed.
Reimagining compliance for a real-time world
For banks willing to rethink how compliance operates, this moment presents a clear opportunity to not only strengthen oversight, but to escape a cycle of rising cost and diminishing returns. As regulatory expectations rise and financial infrastructure accelerates, institutions have a chance to move beyond reactive expansion and build compliance frameworks that are both more effective and more economically sustainable.
An efficiency-driven compliance framework is central to breaking this cycle. Rather than increasing headcount or layering new processes each time risk or regulation evolves, the focus needs to be on improving how compliance work is performed. By reducing duplication and allowing better decision-making at scale, efficiency helps banks contain costs while improving outcomes, addressing the root cause of the compliance cost trap. The question becomes; how can organisations unlock these improvements? In practice, this shift is anchored in four core capabilities that together redefine modern compliance.
First, automation helps decouple compliance effectiveness from both headcount growth and large-scale system change. By streamlining the likes of data collection, enrichment and alert handling on top of existing environments, automation reduces manual effort without requiring a full ‘rip and replace’ approach of legacy platforms. This lowers the cost of day-to-day compliance activity while improving consistency and investigation speed.
Next, risk-based approaches make sure resources are applied where they make the most difference. In practice, this means deeper scrutiny for higher-risk customers, geographies or transaction patterns, while allowing faster, lighter-touch processing for low-risk activity. With AI models and agents, banks can learn from historical patterns, detect subtle anomalies and adapt to evolving fraud and financial crime typologies, using a risk-based approach to automatically reduce false positives. But by tailoring controls to actual exposure, institutions can improve outcomes while reducing unnecessary operational burden.
The third capability is streamlined reporting. This can be a time-consuming component of compliance, but automated, standardised reporting helps institutions meet regulatory obligations more efficiently, particularly across jurisdictions. By producing consistent, explainable and audit-ready outputs, financial institutions can reduce the recurring cost of manual reconciliation, remediation and regulatory engagement – all while strengthening compliance confidence.
Finally, interoperability underpins efficiency. Compliance systems rarely operate in isolation and replacing them outright is too costly and disruptive. Interoperable environments, however, allow institutions to modernise incrementally – connecting existing systems, eliminating duplication and extending the value of current investments – without downtime or operational risk.
Together, these four capabilities help shift compliance away from perpetual cost growth and toward a more stable, scalable model. Efficiency simply becomes the next frontier. Not as a shortcut, but as the mechanism through which banks strengthen defences, control costs and remain resilient in an increasingly demanding regulatory environment.
Escaping the cost trap
As regulation becomes more outcome-focused and financial crime continues to evolve, banks are being pushed to reconsider not how much they spend on compliance, but how effectively that investment is put to work.
Efficiency now represents the next frontier of compliance. And those institutions that rethink how compliance is designed, connected and scaled will be better positioned to strengthen defences, control cost growth and respond faster to change.
The opportunity ahead is to move compliance beyond perpetual expansion and toward purposeful design. For banks, regulators and the wider financial ecosystem, the objective is clear: build compliance frameworks that are fit for the future, resilient by default and capable of keeping pace with risk – all without letting cost become the limiting factor.
Business
Why Resilience Is Replacing Prevention as the Defining Cybersecurity Strategy
by Manuel Sanchez, Information Security and Compliance Specialist, iManage
For decades, cybersecurity centered around prevention. Build the right walls around your perimeter, deploy the right tools, train your people not to click the wrong links, and you could keep the bad actors out.
Today, the question driving security strategy is no longer “how do we stop a breach?” but “how do we survive one?” It is a subtle but profound shift in philosophy, and it is reshaping everything from how IT and Security leaders structure their teams to how they select their vendors and deploy AI.
Rehearsing for the worst
The practical expression of this shift is visible in how security teams are being restructured. Organisations are establishing dedicated disaster recovery teams – not to prevent incidents, but to contain and recover from them when they occur. These teams maintain detailed, regularly updated playbooks covering everything from backup restoration to stakeholder communications, with roles pre-assigned and procedures rehearsed well in advance.
In many ways, this mirrors the logic behind disaster drills: fire alarms matter, but knowing the evacuation routes and the post-incident recovery plan determines how well an organisation survives. Critically, responsibility cannot rest with the CISO alone. Business continuity after a cyber incident is a whole-company challenge – which means every core part of the organisation is involved to sustain critical business operations.
Governance in the gray areas
Running alongside this shift is a governance crisis that is easy to underestimate until it becomes a serious risk. As organisations adopt more applications across more vendors and hosting services, the shared responsibility model that was supposed to keep cloud accountability clear has become increasingly difficult to enforce.
The sheer volume of cloud applications in use at any given enterprise is too vast for consistent governance under current approaches – and bad actors have become skilled at identifying exactly where vendor responsibility ends, and customer accountability begins, then operating precisely in that “gray area”. Being aware of this risk and putting preventative measures in place is important, but recognising the role these cloud applications play and the impact to key business operations if these applications were compromised, is critical.
Meanwhile, data volumes continue to grow exponentially, and unstructured data continues to accumulate in the background across many digital systems. Why is this important? If you don’t know what data you have, where it is stored, who has access to it, and, most importantly, how it is protected – onsite or cloud backup – this makes the recovery process a lot harder.
AI agents on the rise – and with it new risks
Although the focus of this article is on resilience, prevention must still remain an essential part of your defences. On that front, the accelerating adoption of autonomous AI in cyber defence tasks is reshaping security operations as visibly as anything else happening in the field right now. The volume, speed, and sophistication of modern threats have simply outpaced what human analysts can manage in real time.
The shift is toward AI that doesn’t just flag anomalies for human review, but actively detects, analyses, and neutralises threats as they emerge, even using predictive models to anticipate attacks before they fully materialise. This frees human experts to focus on strategic decisions and complex defence work rather than spending their days firefighting.
Autonomous AI does, however, introduce risks of its own. When AI agents operate across systems – accessing sensitive repositories, triggering actions, sharing data – they expand the attack surface in ways that aren’t always immediately visible.
Managing the digital identities of AI agents, much like managing employee access credentials, is becoming a critical security discipline. Accordingly, comprehensive traceability frameworks that log every action an agent takes are no longer optional; they are the foundation of responsible AI deployment in any security context.
The supply chain wake-up call
The case for moving from a “prevention” mindset to a “resilience” one is further bolstered by recent high-profile breaches via compromised managed service providers, which have forced a fundamental reset in how organisations evaluate their vendors.
The era of cost-first selection is over. Security credentials, demonstrated through continuous and verifiable evidence, are now non-negotiable for any provider hoping to retain enterprise clients – and what organisations are demanding goes well beyond point-in-time audits. They want real-time visibility into every third-party integration, every software update, and every vendor interaction – including the cloud services the vendors themselves use.
“Trust but verify” has become the operational standard, and providers who cannot demonstrate validated controls and live monitoring are finding themselves out of contention. It is a structural shift that will reshape the vendor landscape considerably — and it is already underway.
A new era demands a new approach
In the end, prevention still matters, but resilience – instilled via the key focus areas above – is what turns disruption into survivable events rather than existential crises. The organisations that are honest about the limits of prevention and embrace the shift towards resilience won’t just better withstand the next wave of attacks – they’ll be differentiating themselves from competitors still clinging to yesterday’s playbook.
PSD3 and the Real-Time Fraud Imperative: What the Regulation Actually Demands of Financial Infrastructure
Why law firms can no longer afford fragmented networks
The compliance cost trap and why efficiency must be the next frontier
How 5G and AI are shaping the future of eHealth
Combating Cyber Fraud in the Aviation Industry
